DOI: 10.33917/es-1.205.2026.46-53

The author examines peculiarities of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in the context of modern challenges.

References:

1. Konstitutsiya Rossiyskoy Federatsii (prinyata vsenarodnym golosovaniem 12 dekabrya 1993 g. s izmeneniyami, odobrennymi v khode obshcherossiyskogo golosovaniya 1 iyulya 2020 g.) [Constitution of the Russian Federation (adopted by popular vote on December 12, 1993, with amendments approved during the all-Russian vote on July 1, 2020)]. Dostup iz SPS “Konsul’tant Plyus”.

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DOI: 10.33917/es-1.205.2026.38-45

The paradigm shift in international relations has caused significant changes in financial markets. The proposed author’s methodology for economic-mathematical modeling of the ruble exchange rate based on international flows makes it possible to include capital flows in the modeling orbit at a formal-logical level in an explicit form, taking into account their short-term volatility. Conducted during various crisis periods — formally based on results of mathematical modeling — analysis and assessment of short-term effects of the ruble exchange rate dynamics show the presence of preconditions for producing shortterm volatility in the national currency exchange rate under conditions of unfavorable geo-economic environment and a freefloating exchange rate regime. Based on the above, it is concluded that the Bank of Russia needs to make more serious efforts to implement a stabilization exchange rate policy, which is one of the key components of macroeconomic management.

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The article shows the consequences of the RF Central Bank current monetary policy, analyzes its theoretical prerequisites and the results of its application in practice. In particular, the authors consider the differences between the inflation targeting monetary policy, which is carried out in Russia, and the experience of its application in the EU and the USA. Particular attention is paid to the Central Bank activities during devaluation in 2014 – 2015, immediate consequences for the various sectors of the Russian economy of the measures taken are analyzed in detail. The authors also propose fundamentally different approach to pursuing this policy, necessary to overcome negative results of the previous actions of the Bank of Russia. These steps mentioned in the article imply introduction of a new emission model, transformation of the Russian ruble in the world currency, increasing stability of its exchange rate.

At the theoretical-methodological level the article investigates the system interrelation of available tools and the complex of targeted parameters while carrying out the currency and monetary policy. From formal positions of economic-mathematical modeling it is shown that volatility of streams of the capital and volatility of the export prices, first of all prices of oil and oil products, directly define volatility of an exchange rate of ruble. It is shown that real transition to targeting of inflation in modern conditions of strategic pressure upon our country from the USA and the EU is represented premature, including in the context of national security of Russia.