Economics of Technology: The Problem of Asymmetry and the «Two Potentials Doctrine». Part I

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DOI: 10.33917/es-2.206.2026.38-45

The article dwells on the “economics of technology” as a scientific direction that was formed within the framework of an independent field of the broader area of the “economics of scientific and technological progress” (STP). The aim of the study is to assess the effect of declining quality of scientific and technological knowledge due to information asymmetry, as well as to introduce the “two potentials” doctrine — current and prospective ones for studying technological links, determining technological development and verifying technological policy. The research methodology is based on the fundamental principles of «technological economics,» regression and taxonomic analysis. Application of these positions and methods made it possible to substantiate ambiguity and invalidity of the “Akerlof effect” in describing the processes of declining the supposedly decreasing quality of scientific and technological results over time. It is shown that there is a lack of a convincing criterion for assessing quality and its modification, moreover this is an objective circumstance of a scientific development. This quality is ensured by the continuity and stage-by-stage nature (as well as increasing complexity) of scientific-technological development, which constitutes one of the fundamental principles of scientific-technological progress (STP). The article presents a regression model, tested for Russia, which links the level of technological sophistication, measured by the ratio of the volume of innovative to noninnovative products (works, services), with current and future potential. The author describes the greater influence of the current, rather than the prospective potential on the technological level, as well as the feedback of potentials themselves, when the growth of the prospective potential reduces the current potential. This result underlines the relevance of the problem of distributing resources between technological paradigms at the macro level, since maintaining current technological capabilities is no less important than providing resources for breakthrough ones, and searching a structure for distributing resources represents an unsolved problem in modern science, which is clearly outlined here. Solution to this problem is envisaged through additional study of the connectivity of structures and technologies, R&D and fundamental research. The exploration perspective is to use lagged variables and to establish possible influences and patterns taking them into account, as well as to improve models that reveal more complex relationships.

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