Adaptive mechanism for managing the process of sales of a portfolio of property assets

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.128.2026.18-35

This article presents an adaptive asset portfolio sales management mechanism designed for financial directors and managers working with distressed assets. The mechanism is based on the stochastic DOAS model [1], which takes into account the time value of money, the probabilistic nature of demand, and the uncertainty of market conditions. A key feature is a closed-loop feedback control loop that allows for automatic adjustment of the model parameters as actual sales data accumulates. The article provides a mathematical description of the model, including the logistic probability function, the calculation of the expected net present value, the Hurwitz criterion for accounting for risk [15], and an algorithm for adapting parameters based on the maximum likelihood method [19]. A demonstration of the mechanism’s operation is provided using real data from a portfolio of 12 real estate properties of three types. Retrospective testing of the adaptive mechanism is conducted. The material is aimed at managers wishing to transfer asset management from the intuitive realm to the realm of quantitative risk management [2, 3].

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