DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.125.2025.97-113

This article uses econometric modeling methods to examine a set of topological factors encompassing various mechanisms of the socio-economic system’s functioning. Correlation and regression analysis are used to determine linear relationships and establish the level of objective significance of factors influencing the formation of an active field of social protest in society. A set of econometric forecasting models has been developed, using the characteristics of scenario criteria for the socio-economic and political development of the state as exogenous variables influencing the degree of social protest in society. Three scenarios have been calculated based on these models: the baseline (the most probable), an optimistic scenario, and a pessimistic scenario. From an economic security perspective, the results obtained have been used to formulate a short-term forecast that reflects the dynamics of protest activity in the Russian Federation from 2022 to 2026 inclusive. Furthermore, at the final stage of the experiment, threshold values were determined for all the factors under study. This, combined with the proposed economic and mathematical method, provides a set of tools for making management decisions in the face of growing social tension.

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DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.101.2021.83-102

The article examines the relationship between socio-economic indicators characterizing the level of economic security of the state and the growth of protest activity of the population. Based on the socio-historical analysis, a generalizing conclusion is made that the economic downturn, reflecting the cyclical nature of economic processes, naturally affects the decline in the standard of living of the population and thereby produces further impoverishment of the population. Using the example of a historical analogy with pre-revolutionary Russia, the calculation data defining the boundaries of modern poverty are given. In turn, growing economic differentiation and poverty create an arc of social tension and form a favorable environment for the manifestation of social protests.