According to the IMF, the US GDP growth rate in 2025 will decrease to 1,6% with the forecast for US GDP growth in 2024 being 2,1%. Our article [1] provides an analysis of «Black Monday» on August 5, 2024, which marked the beginning of the global financial crisis. In this article, we will outline the further course of this crisis. In Russia, GDP growth for the first half of 2024 was 4,6%, for 2024 – 4,1%. The forecast for real GDP for the world was 3,2% in 2024 and, according to the IMF, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation gave a conservative scenario, according to which the growth of Russian GDP in 2025 will be 1,7%, inflation 3,7% (Kommersant, 09.14.2024, p. 19).

References:

1. Kuzovkin A.I., Stakun A.V. Forecast of the dynamics of global economic development for 2024–2025. Microeconomics. 2024;4:27–38.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.117.2024.27-38

The article analyzes the global economic forecasts for 2024–2025 developed by the World Bank, the IMF, and the OECD. According to the May OECD report, one of the risks to economic development may be an acceleration of inflation in developed countries. In the United States, annual inflation accelerated to 3,5% in March 2024, compared to 3,2% in February. And the US Federal Reserve is ready to postpone the interest rate cut until November 2024. The IMF forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2024 has been improved to 3,2%, but reduced to 1,8% for 2025. For the United States, GDP growth is projected to be 2,1% in 2024, and 1,7% for 2025.

References:

1. Chugunov Artem. The Economy of Developing Overheating. The World Bank Shares the Position of the Bank of Russia on the Nature of Inflation in the Russian Federation. 04/15/2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6648521

2. World Bank. 2024. Global Economic Prospects. January. Washington, DC: World Bank. URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7fe97e0a-52c5-4655-9207-c176eb9fb66a/content

3. Borovikova Kristina. Developing Economies Are Becoming More Attached to Developed Ones. Monitoring the World Economy. 05.04.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6622054

4. Borovikova Kristina. The Grounds for a Global Slowdown Are Being Selected. OECD expects moderate growth in 2024. 06.02.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6493747

5. Edovina Tatyana. Global fun. The IMF has raised its forecasts for the global and Russian economies. 30.01.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6479601

6. Today’s number. Inflation in the OECD in 2023. 08.02.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6495212

7. Borovikova Kristina. The global economy has received additional growth. The OECD has cautiously improved its global GDP forecast. 02.05.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6680489

8. OECD Economic Outlook, May 2024. URL: https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/may-2024/

9. Elvira Nabiullina’s press conference: increase in the key rate, peak inflation. Key points. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6760711

Considering all the measures taken by central banks of the leading countries to overcome the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, one might have expected that economies would grow at a higher pace. However, their growth remains rather unstable. This puts the question of how modern economy retains the capability to adequately respond to applied measures of impact.