Some Theoretical Approaches and Forecasts in the Sphere of Foreign Direct Investment

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.28-33

In 2024, the Nobel Prize was awarded to American economists Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson (new institutional economics). The article contains a critical analysis of theoretical approaches and anti-Russian statements of the new Nobel laureates. Contrary to their optimistic expectations, the socio-economic development of a number of A frican countries after the “Arab Spring” is characterized by acute problems and economic indicators of the leading countries of “democratic” Europe remain relatively weak for a long period of time. The ar ticle also examines current trends and forecasts in foreign direct investments (FDI). High levels of uncer tainty in the global economy and new tariffs imposed by the United States in 2025 are creating a lot of new risks for global value chains and foreign direct investments. In these circumstances, the author suggests recalling some of the ideas of past Nobel laureates Paul Krugman, Simon Kuznets, V.V. Leontief and Jan Tinbergen on the role of economic, industrial and migration policies, as well as policy in the sphere of foreign direct investments and economic integration. The article also offers some recommendations for economic policy in Russia.

References:

1. Adzhemoglu S., Robinson D. Pochemu odni strany bogatye, a drugie bednye. Proiskhozhdenie vlasti, protsvetaniya i nishchety [Why Nations Fail. The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty]. Moscow, AST, 2024, 668 p.

2. The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024: Press Release. The Nobel Prize, available at: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2024/press-release/

3. Biggest Support Package to Ukraine So Far Increases Swedish Support to SEK 29.5 Billion for 2025. Government Offices of Sweden, available at: https://www.government.se/press-releases/2025/03/biggest-support-package-to-ukraine-so-far-increases-swedish-support-to-sek-29.5-billion-for-2025

4. Tatuzov V.Yu. Ogranichitel’naya monetarnaya politika — prepyatstvie dlya pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy [Restrictive Monetary Policy — an Obstacle to Foreign Direct Investment]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 6. Ekonomika, 2024, no 4(59), pp. 49–65, DOI: https://doi.org/10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-59-4-3

5. Global Investment Trends Monitor, 2025, no 48, UNCTAD, available at: https://unctad.org/publications-search?f%5B0%5D=product%3A6096.

6. Handbook of Statistics — 2024. UNCTAD, available at: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tdstat49_en.pdf

7. UNCTAD Trade and Development Foresights 2025: Under Pressure — Uncertainty Reshapes Global Economic Prospects. Geneva, UNCTAD, 2025, 55 p.

8. Leontief W. Domestic Production and Foreign Trade; The American Capital Position Re-Examined. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 1953, no 4(97), pp. 332–349.

9. Kuznets S., Rubin E. Immigration and the Foreign Born. New York, NBER, 1954, 107 p.

10. Kuznets S. Population, Capital and Growth. London, Neineman, 1974, 342 p.