Overlapping long-term demographic trends with geopolitical shocks in a challenging economic environment

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.126.2026.5-11

The article examines the problems of configuring long-term demographic trends in the context of geopolitical shocks with a focus on increasing the operational array of human (bio-social) and resource-consumption (material and non-material) factors as elements of a socio-economic supersystem with a significant component of difficult-to-predict development. The paper analyses the problems of maintaining viability of the state as a supersystem. The authors substantiate a direction of the regulatory vector for the developed profiles of operational indicators depending on different population structures as a predictable phenomenon – a baseline from which to build on the factors stimulating demographic basis for the state’s viability. The main objective is to support transition of the human resource provision for the armed forces (in the context of the Special Military Operation) and production structures in various sectors of the economy from a cluster of difficult-to-predict development (instability) into a cluster with confirmed available opportunities for replenishing military personnel and key industries workers (primarily defence and critical infrastructure) as a computation solution in relation to the macro-space of operated indicators.

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