Comparative analysis of foreign qualitative models for forecasting crisis situations and bankruptcy probability. Part 2

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.122.2025.35-51

The article provides a comparative analysis of foreign qualitative models of bankruptcy forecasting, in particular the models of W. Beaver and D. Duran, with the aim of assessing their applicability to Russian innovative companies. The strengths and weaknesses of the models are considered, as well as the features of their use in the context of Russian reporting under Russian accounting standards (RAS standards). The study presents the results of calculations of financial ratios for 22 Russian mobile operators and telecommunications services (hereinafter referred to as Russian innovative companies) and their comparison with the real financial situation. To assess the accuracy of predictions, the F1 measure was used, the results of which revealed a significant number of inaccuracies in bankruptcy forecasting. Based on the data obtained, the issue of adapting foreign qualitative models of bankruptcy forecasting to Russian economic realities and taking into account the industry specifics of Russian innovative companies in their research is considered.

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