Econometric modeling of forecasting processes of social tension and protest activity in the state

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.125.2025.97-113

This article uses econometric modeling methods to examine a set of topological factors encompassing various mechanisms of the socio-economic system’s functioning. Correlation and regression analysis are used to determine linear relationships and establish the level of objective significance of factors influencing the formation of an active field of social protest in society. A set of econometric forecasting models has been developed, using the characteristics of scenario criteria for the socio-economic and political development of the state as exogenous variables influencing the degree of social protest in society. Three scenarios have been calculated based on these models: the baseline (the most probable), an optimistic scenario, and a pessimistic scenario. From an economic security perspective, the results obtained have been used to formulate a short-term forecast that reflects the dynamics of protest activity in the Russian Federation from 2022 to 2026 inclusive. Furthermore, at the final stage of the experiment, threshold values were determined for all the factors under study. This, combined with the proposed economic and mathematical method, provides a set of tools for making management decisions in the face of growing social tension.

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