Scenarios for the Development of World Nuclear Power in the Context of Limited Fossil Resources

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.24-31

Forecasts of the scenarios for the development of the world nuclear power industry are given, taking into account the limited resources of natural uranium and the concept of sustainable development. On the basis of a new model of dynamic forecasting of the depletion of fossil resources, possible restrictions on the development of hydrocarbon and nuclear energy at thermal reactors are considered. It is shown that the existing nuclear power based on thermal reactors does not have a long-term perspective (more than 100 years) for a number of reasons. The most promising development in order to maintain and, moreover, increase the contribution of nuclear power plants to electricity generation, is the two-component nuclear power system with a combined uranium-plutonium nuclear fuel cycle. However, the widespread introduction of fast-neutron reactors is possible in the second half of this century. For the next few decades, the tasks of economic substantiation of the diversification of business product lines in the field of a closed nuclear fuel cycle for scenarios of the development of nuclear power on thermal reactors in conditions of limited traditional reserves of natural uranium are urgent

References:

1. Medouz D.Kh., Randers I., Medouz D.L. Predely rosta. 30 let spustya [Limits to Growth. The 30-Year Update]. Moscow, Akademkniga, 2008, 342 p.

2. 17 Goals to Transform Our World. United Nations Sustainable Development, available at: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/

3. Ustoichivoe razvitie [Sustainable Development]. Sait Goskorporatsii “Rosatom”, available at: https://rosatom.ru/sustainability/

4. Stsenarii razvitiya mirovoi energetiki — 2019. Budushchee atomnoi energetiki: poisk garmonii v energeticheskom perekhode [World Energy Scenarios — 2019. The Future of Nuclear: Diverse Harmonies in the Energy Transition]. Moscow, MIRES, 2019, 66 p.

5. Kharitonov V.V. Stsenarii razvitiya mirovoi yadernoi energetiki [World Nuclear Energy Development Scenarios]. Atomnyi ekspert, 2019, no 1, pp. 47–53.

6. Ul’yanin Yu.A., Kharitonov V.V., Yurshina D.Yu. Prognozirovanie dinamiki ischerpaniya traditsionnykh energeticheskikh resursov [Forecasting the Dynamics of the Depletion of Conventional Energy Resources]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2018, no 2, pp. 60–71.

7. Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. 69th edition, BP, 2020, 68 p.

8. World Nuclear Power Reactors & Uranium Requirements. Information Library. World-nuclear.org, available at: https://www.world-nuclear.org/informationlibrary.aspx.

9. Kharitonov V.V., Ul’yanin Yu.A., Sliva D.E. Analiticheskoe modelirovanie dinamiki ischerpaniya nevozobnovlyaemykh traditsionnykh energeticheskikh resursov [Analytical Modeling of Exhaustion Dynamics of Non-Renewable Traditional Energy Resources]. Vestnik NIYaU MIFI, 2019, no 3, pp. 298–307.

10. World Uranium Geology, Exploration, Resources and Production. IAEA, Vienna, 2020. 988 p.

11. Prognoz razvitiya energetiki mira i Rossii do 2040 goda [Forecast of Energy Development in the World and Russia Until 2040]. Moscow, INEI RAN, Analiticheskii tsentr pri Pravitel’stve RF, 2013, 110 p.

12. Velikhov E.P., Gagarinskii A.Yu., Subbotin S.A., Tsibul’skii V.F. Rossiya v mirovoi energetike XXI veka [Russia in the World Energy Sector of the XXI Century]. Moscow, IzdAT, 2006, 136 p.

13. Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2019 Edition. IAEA, Vienna, 2019, 154 p.

14. Solov’eva A.P., Ul’yanin Yu.A., Kharitonov V.V., Yurshina D.Yu. O tsennosti OYaT kak syr’ya dlya topliva reaktorov na teplovykh neitronakh [The Value of Spent Nuclear Fuel as a Raw Material for Fueling Reactors on Thermal Neutrons.]. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya energetika, 2019, no 2, pp. 140–150.

15. Kovalev N.V., Zil’berman B.Ya., Goletskii N.D., Sinyukhin A.B. Novyi podkhod k povtornomu ispol’zovaniyu otrabotavshego yadernogo topliva teplovykh reaktorov v ramkakh kontseptsii REMIKS [A New Approach to Spent Nuclear Fuel Recycling for Light Water Reactors in the Frame of REMIX Concept]. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya energetika, 2020, no 1, pp. 67–77.

16. Kharitonov V.V. Dinamika razvitiya yadernoi energetiki. Ekonomiko-analiticheskie modeli [Nuclear Power Development Dynamics. Economical-Analytical Models]. Moscow, NIYaU MIFI, 2014, 328 p.

17. Dvukhkomponentnaya yadernaya energeticheskaya sistema s teplovymi i bystrymi reaktorami v zamknutom yadernom toplivnom tsikle [Two-component Nuclear Power System with Thermal and Fast Reactors in a Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle]. Pod red. N.N. Ponomareva-Stepnogo. Moscow, Tekhnosfera, 2016, 160 p.

18. Andrianov A.A., Kuptsov I.S., Osipova T.A., et al. Optimizatsionnye modeli dvukhkomponentnoi yadernoi energetiki s teplovymi i bystrymi reaktorami v zamknutom yadernom toplivnom tsikle [Optimization Models of Two-component Nuclear Energy System with Thermal and Fast Reactors in a Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle]. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya energetika, 2018, no 3, pp. 100–112.

19. Berger A., et al. How much can nuclear energy do about global warming? Int. J. Global Energy Issues, 2017, vol. 40, no 1/2, pp. 43–47.

Следить за новостями ИНЭС: