The "Economic Strategies" journal




2021: Stagflation or Technological Sovereignty — No Other Choice!

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.86-91

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for 2021 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out

Источники:

1. Informatsiya o sotsial’no-ekonomicheskom polozhenii Rossii v yanvare 2022 g.: Doklad [Information on the Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-01-2022.pdf.

2. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — dekabre 2021 g. [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January — December 2021]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at:  https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-12-2021.pdf.

3. Informatsiya o soveshchanii u Prezidenta RF o merakh sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoi podderzhki sub”ektov Rossiiskoi Federatsii 15 marta 2022 g. v rezhime videokonferentsii [Information About the Meeting with the President of the Russian Federation on Measures of Socio-Economic Support for the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation on March 15, 2022 Via Videoconference]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67996.

4. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. 2021: itogi devyati mesyatsev — upushchennye vozmozhnosti uskoreniya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [2021: the Results of Nine Months — Lost Opportunities Accelerating Socio-Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 6, pp. 76–81,

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.180.2021.76-81.

5. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 8 noyabrya 2021 g. N 633 “Ob utverzhdenii Osnov gosudarstvennoi politiki v sfere strategicheskogo planirovaniya v Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of November 8, 2021 No. 633 “On Approval of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Sphere of Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/acts/bank/47244.

6. Rasporyazhenie Pravitel’stva RF ot 6 oktyabrya 2021 g. N 2816-r “Ob utverzhdenii perechnya initsiativ sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF do 2030 goda” [Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of October 6, 2021 No. 2816-r “On Approval of the Initiatives List for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation Until 2030”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Pravitel’stva RF, available at: http://government.ru/news/43451/

1925–1935: Locar “Legal Mechanism for ‘Pushing’ Germany to the East”. The Oil Factor

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.108-115

The article examines the factor of oil, when some influential politicians and big businessmen, primarily in Great Britain, tried to use for their far-reaching goals the factual absence of the Weimar Republic’s own oil fields. Monopolization of oil supplies in the context of the implementation of the “legal mechanism for ‘pushing’ Germany to the East” made it possible to a certain extent to manage the foreign policy activity of the Hitlerite regime

Источники:

1. Morozov S.V. Pol’sko-chekhoslovatskie otnosheniya. 1933–1939. Chto skryvalos’ za “politikoi ravnoudalennosti” ministra Yu. Beka [Polish-Czechoslovak Relations. 1933–1939. What was Hidden Behind the “Policy of Equidistance” of Minister Yu. Beck]. Moscow, MGU im. M.V. Lomonosova, 2004, 528 p.

2. Morozov S.V. K voprosu o sekretnom pol’sko-germanskom dogovore 1934 g. [On the Issue of the Secret Polish-German Treaty of 1934]. Slavyanovedenie, 2005, no 5, pp. 35–53.

3. Morozov S.V. Iz dovoennogo dos’e [From the Pre-war Dossier]. Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn’, 2007, no 1–2, pp. 194–213.

4. Morozov S.V. K voprosu o sozdanii v 1925 g. pravovogo mekhanizma “podtalkivaniya” Germanii na Vostok [On the Question of Creating in 1925 a Legal Mechanism for “Pushing” Germany to the East]. Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 2016, no 412, November, pp. 84–88, available at: http://journals.tsu.ru/vestnik/&journal_page=archive&id=1482.

5. Martirosyan A.B. Za kulisami myunkhenskogo sgovora. Kto privel voinu v SSSR [Behind the Scenes of the Munich  Collusion. Who Brought the War to the USSR]. Moscow, Veche, 2008, 608 p.

6. Versal’skii mirnyi dogovor [Versailles Peace Treaty]. Moscow, Litizdat NKID, 1925, 227 p.

7. Agenturnoe soobshchenie v INO OGPU pri SNK SSSR o peregovorakh kantslera Germanii Frantsa fon Papena v Parizhe o formirovanii zapadnoi voennoi koalitsii protiv SSSR [Intelligence Report to the INO OGPU Under the USSR Council of People’s Commissars About Negotiations of Eру German Chancellor Franz von Papen in Paris on Formation of the Western Military Coalition Against the USSR]. Prezidentskaya biblioteka imeni B.N. El’tsina, available at: https://www.prlib.ru/catalog/52995?page=3

8. Dokumenty vneshnei politiki SSSR [Documents of the USSR Foreign Policy]. T. XVI. Moscow, Gospolitizdat, 1970, 920 p.

9. Teichova A. An Economic Background to Munich. L., Cambridge University Press, 1974, 422 p.

10. Colvin J. Vansittart in Office. An historical Survey of the Origins of the Second World War based on the papers of Sir Robert Vansittart, Permanent Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, 1930–1938. L.: V Gollancz, 1965. 360 p.

11. Ickes H.L. The Secret Diaries of Harold L. Ickes. Vol. 1. 1933–1936. N. Y., Simon & Schuster, 1953, 738 p.

12. Mackinder H.J. The Geographical Pivot of History. Geographical Journal, 1904, vol. 23, N 4, pp. 421–437.

13. Mackinder H.J. Democratic Ideals and Reality: a study in the politics of reconstruction. L., Constable and Company, 1919, 286 p.

Stories of Socialism and Communism in pre-Marx Times

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.116-121

Socialism and communism are presented today as unviable social formations. The article analyzes the real experience of successful social construction — “Paraguayan socialism” (XVII — the middle of the XIX century) and the economy of the Old Believers in Russia (from the XVII century to the mid-40s of the XIX century) — which is of great importance for the whole world and for modern Russia

Источники:

1. Sotsializm kak yavlenie mirovoi istorii [Socialism as a Phenomenon of World History]. Sait I.R. Shafarevichaб available at: http://shafarevich.voskres.ru/a13.htm.

2. Paragvaiskii eksperiment. Chast’ pervaya [Paraguayan Experiment. Part One]. VikiChtenie, available at: https://pub.wikireading.ru/195846.

3. Iezuitskie reduktsii [Jesuit Reductions]. Vikipediya, available at: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iezuitskie_reduktsii.

4. Zueva M.V. “Gosudarstvo” iezuitov v Paragvae [“State” of the Jesuits in Paraguay]. Mir indeitsev, available at: https://www.indiansworld.org/Articles/gosudarstvo-iezuitov-v-paragvae.html#.Yd7eklDP2pp.

5. Pyzhikov A.V. Grani russkogo raskola [Facets of the Russian split]. Moscow, Drevlekhranilishche, 2013.

6. Trudovaya etika staroobryadchestva i modernizatsiya Rossii v XIX i XX vekakh [The Work Ethic of the Old Believers and the Modernization of Russia in the 19th and 20th Centuries]. Russkii mir, available at: http://www.russ.ru/pole/Trudovaya-etika-staroobryadchestva-i-modernizaciya-Rossii-v-XIX-i-HH-vv.

7. Katasonov V.Yu. Ekonomika Stalina [Stalin’s Economy]. Moscow, Institut russkoi tsivilizatsii, 2016.

An Innovation That has No Analogues in the World

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.128-137

Today, the problems of preventive and rehabilitative medicine have become acute, which require close attention and determine the development of a new direction in restoring health. One of the fundamental solutions for the complete restoration of the balance of the body, all its parameters, functions of its organs and systems is the use of a corrector in the form of natural microorganisms bacillus subtilis, which form the basis of Vitafield products

Источники:

1. Complementary, Alternative, or Integrative Health: What’s In a Name? National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health, available at: https://www.nccih.nih.gov/health/complementary-alternative-or-integrative-health-whats-in-a-name.

2. Integrated medicine. National Library of Medicine, available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1119398/

3. Integrative Medicine vs. Functional Medicine: Is There a Difference? Between the Bridges Healing Center, available at: https://www.bridgeshealingcenters.com/integrative-medicine-vs-functional-medicine/

4. The Difference Between Functional Medicine and Integrative Medicine. Patronus Medical Blog, available at: https://www.patronusmedical.com/blog/functional-medicine-vs-integrative-medicine.

5. Gaivoronskii I.V., Nichinporuk G.I., Gaivoronskii A.I. Anatomiya i fiziologiya cheloveka [Human Anatomy and Physiology]. Moscow, Akademiya, 2011.

6. Tatarinov V.G. Uchebnik anatomii i fiziologii cheloveka [Textbook of Human Anatomy and Physiology]. Moscow, Medgiz, 1954.

7. Prives M.G., Lysenkov N.K., Bushkovich V.I. Anatomiya cheloveka [Human Anatomy]. Moscow, Meditsina, 1985.

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Human_Anatomy_and_Physiology_Preparatory_Course_(Liachovitzky)/05%3A_Higher_Levels_of_Complexity-_Organs_and_Systems/5.01%3A_Organs_and_Systems_of_the_Human_Organism.

9. Aganbegyan A.G. Kak dolgo zhit’ i ostavat’sya zdorovym [How Long to Live and Stay Healthy]. Vserossiiskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal EKO, 2011, no 10, pp. 5–12

The Digital Twin (Artificial Society) of the Socio-Economic System of Russia is a Platform for Experiments in the Field of Managing Demographic Processes

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19

One of the most promising tools for monitoring and predicting social processes are agent-based models, which are widely used abroad. Their advantage lies in the consideration of the system under study at the level of its individual individuals, which increases the realism of these computer-based assessment methods. In Russia, this direction is also developing, although not so actively. The article discusses the dynamics of the population of Russia, as well as the factors of increasing the birth rate, successful examples of the practical implementation of agent models for studying social processes, a brief description of the model we developed, which includes 146 million agents, is given. With the help of this tool, a forecast of the population of Russia and an assessment of the impact on this indicator of some measures aimed at improving the demographic situation were obtained.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I. Modelirovanie i otsenka natsional’noi sily Rossii [Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 2, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19.

2. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

3. Andreev E.M., Darskii L.E., Khar’kova T.L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993, 143 p.

4. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service], available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru.

5. Zdravookhranenie [Healthcare]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at:  https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/13721.

6. Sobotka T., Matysiak A., Brzozowska Z. Policy responses to low fertility: How effective are they? Working Paper, May, 2019, N 1, available at: https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Policy_responses_low_fertility_UNFPA_WP_Final_corrections_7Feb2020_CLEAN.pdf.

7. The World Bank, available at: https://data.worldbank.org.

8. Aganbegyan A.G. O katastroficheskom uvelichenii smertnosti i merakh po sberezheniyu naroda v Rossii [On Catastrophic Increase in Mortality and Measures to Save the People in Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 4, pp. 6–13, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.6-13.

9. Country Comparisons — Death Rate. The World Factbook, available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison.

10. Goldstein J.R., Koulovatianos C., Li J., Schr der C. Evaluating how child allowances and daycare subsidies affect fertility. Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, available at: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-430067.

11. Kalwij A. The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe. Demography, 2010, N 47(2), pp. 503–519, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0104.

Russia in the Global World of Artificial Intelligence: Assessment by World Rankings

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.20-31

Artificial intelligence systems (AI) are rapidly becoming a competitive tool, an important factor in improving the efficiency of socioeconomic reproduction, and even an attribute of the development of human civilization, the core of global and national development projects. Comparative assessments of the degree of development of AIS have also become a tool for influencing the economic strategies of states and companies and supporting their implementation. Determining a country’s place in the global “table of ranks” makes it possible not only to clarify its real status in global competition in AIS but also to identify unaccounted for elements to increase the effectiveness of government initiatives in the field of AIS development

Источники:

1. Glava VEF zayavil, chto kovid sleduet rassmatrivat’ kak dolgosrochnyi vyzov dlya chelovechestva [The Head of the WEF Said That Covid Should be Seen as a Long-Term Challenge for Humanity]. TASS, available at: https://tass.ru/obschestvo/13273357.

2. Krichevskii G.E. NBIKS-tekhnologii dlya Mira i Voiny [NBICS Technologies for Peace and War]. Saarbryukken, Germaniya, Lambert, 2017, 634 p.

3. Ovchinnikov V.V. Doroga v mir iskusstvennogo intellekta [Road to the World of Artificial Intelligence]. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, RUBIN, 2017, 536 p. (Ceriya: Strategicheskaya analitika)

4. Gonka za tsifrovym prizrakom [Chasing the Digital Ghost]. Kommersant, 2019, June, 24, available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4003879.

5. Kalyaev I.A. Iskusstvennyi intellekt: kamo gryadeshi? [Artificial Intelligence: Whither Goest Thou?]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2019, no 5, pp. 6–15, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.163.2019.6-15.

6. Markoff J. A learning advance in artificial intelligence rivals human abilities. The New York Times, 2015, available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/11/science/an-advance-in-artificial-intelligence-rivals-human-vision-abilities.html.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L., Shkuta A.A. Kitai kak neiroinformatsionnaya megamatritsa: tsifrovye tekhnologii strukturirovaniya kognitivnykh ansamblei poryadka [China as a Neural-Information Megamatrix: Digital Technologies for Structuring Cognitive Ensembles of Order]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 1, pp. 50–61, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.175.2021.50-61.

8. European approach to artificial intelligence. European Commission, available at: https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/european-approach-artificialintelligence.

9. Proposal for a Regulation of the European parliament and of the Council laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (artificial intelligence act) and amending certain union legislative acts. EUR-lex, available at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1623335154975&uri=CELEX%3A52021PC0206.

10. Artificial Intelligence: A European Perspective. European Commission. URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC113826.

Antimonopoly Regulation: Priorities in Changing World

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es.2.182.2022.32-38

The article focuses on changes in global markets induced by digitalization of economy that caused new challenges to antimonopoly regulation. In this context, the author considers digital platforms and use of algorithmic pricing by economic entities. The author proposes to delineate between different types of platforms and their classification in platforms — exchanges or trade spots and multisided markets and to assess the impact of both types on competition. The article also considers the use of digital algorithms by entities as a factor of concerted conduct and implicit collusion among the market participants. In this context, the author attempts to assess the influence of humans and algorithms on sustainability of implicit collusion.

Both problems are considered in the context of global scale of entities. It limits possibilities of law enforcement against their monopolistic conduct by national competition authorities, as well as national sovereignty when faced with global corporations. In conclusion, the author stresses the necessity of search of new means of countering monopolization in digital markets

Источники:

1. ICN 2021, available at: https://icn2021budapest.hu/site/#

2. Ageev A.I. Kartina mira [Picture of the World]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2019, no 4, p. 5, available at: http://www.inesnet.ru/wp-content/mag_archive/2019_04/ES2019-04-Slovo.pdf.

3. Howard A. Shelansky. Information, Innovation and Competition Policy for Internet. University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 2013, N 161, pp. 1699–1701.

4. Competition Policy. European Commission. Case AT.39740 Google Search (Shopping), available at: https://ec.europa.eu/competition/elojade/isef/case_details.cfm?proc_code=1_39740.

5. Monopolies Commission: Digital change requires legal adjustments regarding price algorithms, the media sector and the supply of medicines. Monopolkommission, available at: https://perma.cc/QW5S-UB8Z.

6. Transcript of FTC Hearings Session No. 7: Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century — Day 2. U.S. FED. TRADE COMM’N 19-84 (Nov. 14, 2018), available at: https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_events/1418693/ftc_hearings_session_7_transcript_day_2_11-14-18_0.pdf.

7. Kai-uwe K hn & Steve Tadelis, Algorithm Collusion. CRESSE, 2017, available at:  http://www.cresse.info/uploadfiles/2017_sps5_pr2.pdf.

The Economic Attack on Russia and the Policy of Counteraction

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.40-47

The purpose of the study is to show the patterns of the deployment of an economic attack on Russia. The research methodology is a comparative and retrospective analysis, elements of a structural approach. In the course of the analysis, a result was obtained that boils down to the fact that the current model of the world economy with a high level of integration and dependence of the economy poses a threat to the national security of the country. Economic warfare is carried out through damaging sanctions. Good conditions for it were created by the liberal economic policy pursued in Russia, which held back growth. Moreover, such outcomes are typical not only for economic activity, but also for the functioning of science and education — “invisible” sanctions, which creates a long-term perspective of dependent and driven development. It is necessary to ensure control over the distribution of property owners in the domestic market, planning procedures that are reduced to the establishment of thresholds in the field of imports, exports in various areas of activity, as well as the admission of foreign resources and institutional rules to the domestic market. With the implementation of such an institutional policy, sanctions would cause much less damage or their negative effect would be absent. Today, it is necessary to resist the economic attack by maximizing the withdrawal of assets from the dollar denomination, pursuing an anti-devaluation policy, cutting off the banking system from the speculative depreciation game, and intensifying efforts to replace imports in each industry. It is required to close the contours of production to the domestic market with the re-profiling of production, practicing the seizure of foreign property as a response to similar external actions. Such actions require a systematic state policy in all areas of coordination of industries and activities.

Источники:

 

1. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Bitva za lide rstvo v XXI veke. Rossiya, SShA, Kitai. Sem’ variantov blizhaishego budushchego [The Battle for Leadership in the XXI Century. Russia, USA, China. Seven Options for the Near Future]. Moscow, Knizhnyi mir, 2017, 352 p.

2. L’vov D.S. Ekonomika razvitiya [Development Economics]. Moscow, Ekzamen, 2002, 512 p.

3. Sukharev O.S. “Izvrashchennyi monetarism” budet diktovat’ ekonomicheskuyu strategiyu razvitiya Rossii? [“Perverted Monetarism” will Dictate the Economic Development Strategy of Russia?]. Investitsii v Rossii, 2017, no 6, pp. 27–35.

4. Krugman P. Depressii — eto nechto inoe [Depression is Something Else]. Ekonomika dlya lyuboznatel’nykh: o chem razmyshlyayut nobelevskie laureaty. Moscow, Izd-vo instituta Gaidara, 2017, pp. 26–27.

5. Sukharev O.S. Ekonomicheskie sanktsii: problema otsenki ushcherba [Economic Sanctions: the Problem of Damage Assessment]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel’stvo, 2017, no 8-4, vol. 11, pp. 80–87.

6. Anchishkin A.I. Prognozirovanie tempov i faktorov ekonomicheskogo rosta [Forecasting Rates and Factors of Economic Growth]. Moscow, Maks-Press, 2003, 300 p.

Responding to the Global Challenges of the Club of Rome: from “Limits to Growth” to “Sustainable Development”. To the Half-Century Anniversary of the First Report to the Club

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.52-65

The famous first report to the Club of Rome “The Limits то Growth” not only revealed strategic negative tendencies in the relationship of modern civilization with the natural environment, but also proposed a theoretical direction for overcoming them — “dynamic global equilibrium” (“zero growth”). The modern strategy of sustainable development is considered as a constructive response of civilization to the challenges of the realities of the “limits of growth” on the way of its advancement into the foreseeable future

Источники:

 

1. Мeadows Donnella H., Randers Jorgen, Meadows Dennis L., William W. Behrens. The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Universe Books, 1972, 211 p.

2. Forrester Dzh. Mirovaya dinamika [World Dynamics]. Moscow, Nauka, 1978, 167 p.

3. Pechchei A. Zapiski Rimskogo kluba [Notes of the Club of Rome]. Moscow, 2019, 240 p.

4. Mankind at the Turning Point. The Сlub of Rome, 1974.

5. Medouz D.Kh., Medouz D.L., Randers I. Za predelami rosta: Predotvratit’ global’nuyu katastrofu. Obespechit’ ustoichivoe budushchee [Beyond Growth: Averting a Global Catastrophe. Ensure a Sustainable Future]. Moscow, Progress, Pangeya, 1994, 303 p.

6. Medouz D.Kh., Randers I., Medouz D. Predely rosta: 30 let spustya [Limits to Growth: 30 Years Later]. Moscow, Binom, Laboratoriya znanii, 2013, 357 p.

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9. Egorov V.A., Kallistov Yu.N., Mitrofanov V.B., Piontkovskii A.A. Matematicheskie metody global’nogo razvitiya [Mathematical Methods of Global Development]. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1980, 192 p.

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12. Dubovskii S.V. Global’noe modelirovanie: Voprosy teorii i praktiki [Global Modeling: Issues of Theory and Practice]. Vek globalizatsii, 2010, no 2.

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