The present scientific article, based on applying geo-civilizational reproductive-cyclical macro-model, proposes a System of Goals (Goals tree) for sustainable development of the Eurasian civilization and the main strategy directions to achieve them. On the basis of the World Bank statistics an analysis by five factors (coordinated with the structure of civilizations genotype) is carried out: socio-demographic, agrifood, energyecological, scientific-technological and economic.
The article investigates the global shifts in the world economy and changes in commodity markets, where Russia has a wide range of economic interests and international projects, and is also facing a number of challenges. These are fall in demand and lower prices for basic energy, the growing contradictions and rivalry between the major players, the political pressure and the introduction of market constraints (sanctions). The author raises the question of a new paradigm of development, combining pre-empting the future and reacting in the moment, proactive and reactive strategies based on objective analysis and the deserving moral guidelines.
The article considers the techniques for choosing priorities of economic development from points of view of various economic theory schools. The authors are keen to show the importance of defining priorities for realization of strategic planning idea on the basis of international experience and tools of economic policy. The authors are inclined to believe that the top priority of economic policy should be the population welfare growth, which can be achieved in different ways using different tools.
The article provides an analysis of the possible stabilization of world GDP in the forecast period, including explanation by the systemic long-term falling of oil prices. Given that the world GDP is the value of all goods and services of final consumption, the GDP decline can be attributed to their cheapening. This price reduction can be caused by high rates of innovation and technological development of the world economy. The article presents argumentation that the decline in the world GDP has a longterm nature. Even recessionary development of the global economy is possible. But it is not disastrous. The world economy under the influence of innovation processes is reconstructed through information technology replenishment and through reducing production costs of goods and services for final consumption. The article shows at the model level that countries with a low GDP per capita may have even greater potential for transition to an information economy than countries with a high GDP per capita. This opens a window of opportunities for Russia to modernize the economy in accordance with the evolving trends of the global innovation process.
The article dwells on the possibilities and prospects of Azerbaijan in the current difficult political and economic situation in the world and the country. Removing sanctions from Iran, tension in Russian-Turkish relations, oil prices decline, escalation of Karabakh conflict — how these and other factors will affect the economy of one of the most developed countries of the Transcaucasus.
General trend of the global economic system development includes formation of integrated markets. Preconditions for creating unified local market exist even in such multi-ethnic in composition and perspective in economic interests hyper-region as the Arctic. Of course, the limit for developing the economic activity traditional areals is still far, however economic foresighting has been forcing us long ago to look for reserves. Its threatening projections are based on regularly occurring crisis phenomena, and the wider is the range of active economic actors — both states and corporations — the more often these phenomena occur. Reflections, quoted in this article, about the forms of joint spatial arrangement of unique territory of Russia, Central and East Asia countries, about trends of increasing threats and challenges in the economy, have brought us to recognize feasibility of searching and building adequate forms of cooperation and co-development.
The article dwells on the problem of economic growth organization in the world economic system, as well as the question of implementing the catch-up and outstripping development strategies for countries lagging behind in development. The author gives a simple model of the system economic growth and demonstrates the major factors determining the development strategy. The author substantiates an adequate strategy of advanced development in Russia, taking into account global changes, structural changes, technological regimes (trajectories) of development, carries out an empirical analysis of economic growth results from 1961 to 2012 inclusive. The idea of the factor productivity evaluation is fundamental in the framework of modern theories of economic growth. Yet the structural parameters of the economic system, institutions and technological changes, though the latter are reflected in the changing parameters of the production function, practically are not taken into account in the framework of the known approaches. However, the ratio of structural elements, on the one hand, defines the future value of an aggregated factors productivity, and on the other — has a strong effect on the rate of economic growth and on the mode of its innovative dynamics. Introduction of the economic system’s structural parameters into growth models with the possibility to evaluate such regimes in terms of interaction of old and new combinations represents a significant step in evolution of the economic growth (development) theory. It allows to form a policy of stimulating economic growth based on structural relations and ties, identified for this economic system. It is most convenient in obtaining such models to take advantage of logistics functions, representing a resource modification for the old and the new combinations within the economic system. Result of the economy development depends on the initial conditions, as well as on the institutional parameters of changes in the resource borrowing rates in favor of a new combination and creating its proper resource. Resource formalization in a model is carried out through the idea of investing into new and old combinations.
Foreign direct investment is steadily growing in the world, decreasing in the crisis years, but always restoring its flow. In 25-30 years its geography has expanded considerably. The number of countries and territories making investments abroad has doubled since the 1980s. The circle of donor-countries and the countries-recipients of foreign direct investment is expanding. Unlike most countries of the Central and Eastern Europe, such major emerging markets like China, Brazil, India, Russia has not yet created favorable investment climate, which implies stable political and macroeconomic environment, as well as protection of property rights. In addition to basic measures, aimed at creating attractive conditions for foreign direct investment, such as tax holidays, tax incentives, the use of the guarantee system, specific incentives to attract foreign direct investment have been successfully applied in different countries. Specific incentives for attracting foreign direct investment, such as creating areas of advanced development, where special legal regime for entrepreneurial activities is established, promotion of Russian companies in the world markets, export promotion are highly effective tools in enhancing the competitiveness of Russia in the global foreign direct investment market.
Economy as an eternally living system does not stabilize at the equilibrium point, but passing through a structural crisis and renewing its technological and institutional framework, enters the new trajectory of growth. That is why, reduction of economic reality to search for equilibrium, applied by market fundamentalists, resembles attempts of medieval physiologists to disclose the mystery of life with the help of pathologic anatomy. Author of the article shows that neoclassical positive analysis, revolving around the doctrine of market equilibrium, is essentially a pseudo-scientific religion, substantiating the sacred right of private property. The conclusion is made that it is necessary to stop paying attention to the market fundamentalist demagogy and to pass to pragmatic economic policy in national interests — to implement a program of growth proposed by Stolypin club.
The Central Bank’s fight against inflation is doing more harm than good, because its method of reducing liquidity creates difficulties in crediting the economy, increases the key rate, the cost of money, which, of course, pulls down the economy.