Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19

The article analyzes the world experience of assessing national strength, which is the most informative and popular indicator characterizing the combined national security potential of a particular country, allowing to compare the level of its military power and socio-economic development with other countries. Modeling and evaluating the national strength indicator is extremely important for adjusting strategic documents related to the long-term development of a country, as well as to its foreign policy. In many countries, the national security indicator is assessed by narrow circle of experts or through averaged survey results from a wider range of respondents. The disadvantage of this approach lies in subjectivity, and eventually, in an unreliable estimate. The authors provide a scientifically based methodology for modeling and assessing national power. In forming the components of the national strength integral indicator, key target indicators are used, which are established in the strategic planning documents of Russia. It should be also noted that they contain indicators that are not used by foreign researchers (for example, indicators related to the territory, population, industrial production, energy resources and many others). Results of calculating the integral indicators of national strength, obtained through convolution using factor analysis of group indices, show that at the moment Russia is a world leader (at the level of 3-4 places among 193 countries — members of the UN)

Relationship of the Economic Basis and Political Superstructure of Modern Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.168.2020.20-31

Economic basis existing in the Russian Federation was formed in the 1990s, but it was developing and finally took shape in the early 2000s. It was the political struggle for its implementation that determined the form, structure and nature of the modern political superstructure. As shown by the experience of recent years, the formed basis and superstructure are not intended to carry out in-depth socio-economic reforms in Russia. At the same time, Western total Jesuit Russophobia, the growing power and the number of global challenges, as well as insufficient socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, necessitate fundamental changes. In this regard, the authors provide justification for the need and explore possible ways to modernize the existing political superstructure in the Russian Federation in order to create conditions that provide a powerful and effective Russia’s response to the global challenges of the nearest future

Economic and Mathematical Modeling of Russia’s Economic Security in the Period Under Sanctions

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.168.2020.32-39

For the study, the time period of introducing economic sanctions against the Russian Federation was selected. In consideration are taken the data of Rosstat in terms of finding the values of indicators of our state’s economic security (2013–2017). A correlation and regression analysis of this system, consisting of 15 indicators, was carried out. An economic-mathematical model of the sanctions impact on the economic security of Russia was compiled. To solve this problem, the authors used a correlation-regression analysis, the regression equation was found and statistical significance of the constructed model was substantiated. The findings were recommended to specialists in the sphere of improving the state’s economic security

If the Stars are Lit Up, It Means That Someone Needs It

#3. Attraction of Diversity
If the Stars are Lit Up, It Means That Someone Needs It

Even in conditions of reduced funding for scientific research the staff of academic institutions do not give up and do not sit idle. This is proved by personal example of the president of the Russian Academy of Sciences academician V.E. Fortov, founder of the scientific direction “dynamic physics of nonideal plasma”, studying strong shock waves and extreme states of substances. Such experiments are not at all cheap, but absolutely necessary for our country’s development. Special columnist of the “ES” magazine Natalia Leskova talks to Vladimir Evgenievich Fortov about why this is so and what the fundamental science is needed for.

New Manhattan Project of Planetary Protection

#3. Attraction of Diversity
New Manhattan Project of Planetary Protection

The article presents results of modeling the consequences of a large asteroid’s catastrophic collision with the Earth. They confirm the necessity of concrete steps to create a means of protection against the asteroid-comet danger that threatens the very existence of mankind. Undertaken analysis of the situation in the field of space threat prevention proves that alongside with ensuring national and international security, they will contribute to developing many spheres of the state and humanity activities, including defense, civil defense and protection, science, technology, economics, politics, etc. Russian project of creating an international planetary protection system “Citadel” can serve as a basis for creating means of planetary protection. This is confirmed by inclusion of the Citadel project in the New Manhattan Project, proposed by the World Federation of Scientists.

Creator of the Impossible

#3. Attraction of Diversity
Creator of the Impossible

The generation of winners goes down in history. A year ago, one of the outstanding military scientists of the twentieth century passed from this life. Anatoly Ivanovich Savin was an academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, scientific supervisor of JSC “Concern VKO “Almaz-Antey”, Hero of Socialist Labor, coryphaeus of the national defense industry complex. His name stands in line with the names of Kurchatov, Korolev, Keldysh, although it is not so well known. There are people whose contribution to the emerging and development of the Russian defense industry could not be overestimated. There are mentors, without whom it is impossible to imagine the history of the country. There are persons about whom, instead of short memorabilia, it is necessary to write a full book. All this could be told about Academician Savin. The meaning of all of its production and scientific activities was to realize the idea of maintaining a strategic equilibrium in the world, preventing global disasters and the possibility of imitating any armed conflict, especially between nuclear powers. The creation of guided jet weapons in the 1950’s, global space information and information management systems in 60’s – 70’s of the twentieth century are behind him. Trivial question, what he loves most in life, he used to meet with a laconic and simple answer: “Life!”.

Civil-Military Integration Prospects

#3. Attraction of Diversity
Civil-Military Integration Prospects

The regular meeting of the Association “Analytics” for promoting analytical potential of the Individual, Society and the State, held on April 17, 2017 in the RF Chamber of Commerce and Industry, was dedicated to a very important issue — production of civilian and dual-purpose products by enterprises of the defense-industry complex. Discussions at the highest level proved that different solutions are possible here, and the expert-industrial community has got a feeling that now it’s high time to work out a point of view that should be scientifically based and at the same time should rely on the industry’s vision of these problems. The last thing should be repeating experience of the 1980–1990s in this sphere. As there are rapid changes occurring in the technological order, technologies are developing, foreign policy environment and the militarypolitical situation are extremely risky, we must somehow try to foresee the future, realizing that it is almost impossible.

On the Climate Problem and Nature-Similar Technologies

#3. Attraction of Diversity
On the Climate Problem and Nature-Similar Technologies

The regular meeting of the Bogomolov Club, held on April 10, 2017 in the RAS Institute for Economic Strategies was dedicated to discussing the current climate changes and their impact on the population and economy of Russia through various natural disasters and catastrophes.

They Beat Us — We are Flying

#3. Attraction of Diversity
They Beat Us — We are Flying

As evidenced by the economic theory, as well as by practical experience in our country and abroad, the key condition for overcoming the stagflation decline of the Russian economy is rapid and significant increase in investments by 30-50%. According to the RAS Institute of Economic Forecasting, the level of 5% annual increase in GDP can be achieved with an increase in the accumulation rate up to the target value set by the President of the Russian Federation at 27% of GDP by 2018. To catch up with the growth rate of the Chinese economy and to ensure the average growth rates, declared by the head of state, above the world average, the accumulation rate should be increased up to 35%. To this end, the annual growth of investments in fixed assets should be not less than 20%. The existing production facilities, occupied by half in engineering and construction, allow this. At the same time, economic growth will be achieved through increasing efficiency of the primary resources use as a result of introducing new technologies, increasing the level of primary commodities processing, advanced growth of mechanical engineering and due to production of a new technological order. The latter, provided its dynamic upgrading on an advanced technological basis, includes aircraft construction, as well as a complex of industries and technologies working for the aircraft industry. Thus, development and introducing into production of aircraft necessary for the domestic market and the markets of third countries, provide a significant synergistic effect both for the aviation industry itself and for a wide range of subcontractors. Focusing the state attention on the advanced development of the aircraft industry as a locomotive for the growth of a new technological structure retransmits the development impulse to the whole economy, will allow to achieve target goals both of increasing investment in promising areas, and in loading productive capacities, as well as providing employment through creation of new High-tech jobs. If it were not for the sabotage of the middle-level management in the aviation industry, the latter would have long ago become a point of growth. But, as A thoughtful analysis shows, such state of affairs simply does not suit many people.