Economy: External and Internal Dynamics | Институт экономических стратегий

Prospects for Forming Greater Eurasian Partnership: Interests of Russia and Other Countries — Members of the Eurasian Economic Union

#8. New Year’s Forces
Prospects for Forming Greater Eurasian Partnership: Interests of Russia and Other Countries — Members of the Eurasian Economic Union

The article considers the actual economic interests of Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union in the process of formation of the Great Eurasian partnership in the face of current challenges. An approach is proposed to implement these interests on the basis of an analysis of benefits and risks.

Forming the Russian Cluster of Transport-Transit and Fuel-Energy Corridors of Eurasia, Integrated with the Chinese Economic Belt of the Silk Road

#8. New Year’s Forces
Forming the Russian Cluster of Transport-Transit and Fuel-Energy Corridors of Eurasia, Integrated with the Chinese Economic Belt of the Silk Road

The article is dedicated to forming the Russian cluster of transport-transit and fuel-energy corridors of Eurasia as a Russian counterpart partner project integrated with the Chinese Economic belt of the Silk Road. The authors substantiate the necessity of creating the Eurasian distributed mega-hub, oriented to consolidated management for the use of the transport-transit and fuel-energy infrastructure of Russia and other states-participants of the EAEU, combined with a similar Chinese infrastructure. The technological base of such a project is the infrastructure for production and transportation of fuel, energy, raw materials, food and other resources and for provision of logistics and other services in the structure of infrastructure-transport directions (corridors) “China–Russia–Europe” and “Russia–China–Asia”. It is proposed to change Russia’s business positioning in cooperation with China for its integration as a key operator in the structure of providing transport and transit services and supplying fuel and energy resources in Europe and Asia. On this basis, it is possible to form mechanisms both for coordinating trade of products and resources, as well as agreeing in mutually beneficial interests between Russia and China on various technological, economic, information and other aspects that ensure synchronization of the processes of rendering transport and transit services and energy supply to consumers in different territorial zones of national economies of Europe and Asia.

Early Identification of Structural Shifts

#8. New Year’s Forces
Early Identification of Structural Shifts

The article is investigating structural changes in the economy before these shifts are reflected in well-known statistical indicators. It dwells on the changes in the economy that occurred in 2011–2015 based on the data from relatively big companies in Russia from SPARK group. The method proposed by the authors shows the presence of structural shifts in the period under study. The article also discusses possible consequences of structural shifts for development of regional economy and the budget system of Russia.

While Stagnation: the Threat of Another Recession Remains

#8. New Year’s Forces
While Stagnation: the Threat of Another Recession Remains

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for January — September 2017 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

Demographic Phenomenon of BRICS

#7. Foresight Boom
Demographic Phenomenon of BRICS

The article examines the phenomenon of BRICS, which has now acquired a global visibility. The article focuses on the main potential of the BRICS countries — human capital, those demographic resources that, being combined with a growing economy and a standard of living, can break the current picture of the world.

US National Debt: What is the Future Preparing for Us?

#7. Foresight Boom
US National Debt: What is the Future Preparing for Us?

The article examines the structure of the US public debt, makes comparative analysis of the periods of the US national debt sharp increase and intensification of the economic domination policy. It is proved that national debt is an instrument organically introduced into the economic mechanism of the US economy, which contributes to maintaining social stability in society. When examining the components of the US public debt, attention is paid to the social component, including medical care, pensions and migration burden on the US budget, as well as to role of fiscal policy in the development of the US national economy. It is revealed that the structure of the US national economy, despite the trends of the economic policy changes announced by the president, remains unchanged, inertial growth, practically not associated with the activities of the new US administration, continues. Attention is drawn to foreign counterparties, holders of US securities, including Russia. The article considers the possibility for the US Congress to raise the national debt ceiling as an instrument of internal political opposition to the current administration of the US president and the presidential policy. In case of significant delay in raising the national debt ceiling by the US Congress, which will also become a factor in strengthening sanctions pressure on Russia, our country can incur real losses.

On the System Economics Basis Formation

#7. Foresight Boom
On the System Economics Basis Formation

Authors propose a new idea of the economic theory construction as a more systematic and reasonable. The authors divide the economics into five levels: nanoeconomics, microeconomics, mezoeconomics, macroeconomics and megaeconomics. Nanoeconomics is considered as economics of intellectual capital, intellectual property and innovations. Nanoeconomics is the systemic basis for all other economics, ensuing from it by meaning and substance. In the article there is noted the increasing significance of legal factor in modern economic theory and practice and, in particular, the IP law importance.

Sanctions Against the Russian Federation: Neutralization Mechanisms

#7. Foresight Boom
Sanctions Against the Russian Federation: Neutralization Mechanisms

Sanctions against Russia adopted in the summer of 2017 will result in aggravation of long-term foreign exchange funding for the Russian economy, in an increase of short-term financial resources in the market and intensification of the speculative nature of Russia’s financial market. The article considers some of the possible measures that Russian regulators and businesses need to take in order to ensure market stability and minimize the negative effects of sanctions for themselves.

Banks’ Rehabilitation: International Experience and the Russian Practice

#7. Foresight Boom
Banks’ Rehabilitation: International Experience and the Russian Practice

The paper analyzes the international and Russian practice of stressed banks rehabilitation, which is realized in two main forms — big banks forced resolution and voluntary recovery of insolvent, but revivable banks. On the insight ground of dynamics and structure of the Russian top-5 banks liabilities and capital the paper shows that in continued credit shrinkage conditions, the Russian banking sector restructuring is possible only through voluntary recovery arrangement. Conversely, forced, but preventive rehabilitation would perceived by markets as a signal of bank’s soon insolvent, and this can become a trigger of the lenders outflow and provokes the compression of banking sector credit portfolio.

Methodological Approaches to Effective Implementation of Strategic Import Substitution Programs

#7. Foresight Boom
Methodological Approaches to Effective Implementation of Strategic Import Substitution Programs

The relevance of the study is based on the need to minimize the damage caused by the sanctions imposed on the country’s economy and to provide the economic growth of economic entities in this context. The purpose of the article is to develop a set of theoretical and methodological approaches to efficient implementation of import substitution programs in the radio electronic industry in the long run. Leading methods in studying this problem were the methods of factors analysis, organizational modeling, system analysis, innovation theory and enterprise economics, which allowed to reveal key contradictions of state policy in the sphere of import substitution in the radio electronic industry. As a result of the study, the original system of criteria was developed, as well as the fundamental management model taking into account the domestic economy’s ability to implement systematic management of competitive import substitution. Materials of the article can be useful for developing new and improving existing methods of regulating relations that arise between entities carrying out activities in the sphere of import substitution, as well as between organizations that are part of the infrastructure supporting the above activity, and public authorities when forming and implementing the corresponding industrial policy.