The author considers three generations of foresight to identify the vector and the logic of its development in order to build theoretical foundation and methodology of foresight in a knowledge-based economy. The article reveals that as the new economy comes into being and develops, a shift from the paradigm of linearity to complexity paradigm, from considering an object under research as a closed and static system to adaptive, dynamic, open, self-organizing systems of a new complexity level, developing in a globalizing economy, in rapidly changing environments with high level of uncertainty, occurs. Theoretical basis should be the theory of evolution, complexity and chaos.
The present review of corporate transparency of Russian system-building companies is based on results of the annual national research of Russian companies’ corporate transparency prepared by the Russian regional network. This research is carried out since 2013 in order to examine the reporting quality of the largest Russian companies, to identify and to propagate best practices of corporate transparency, to make a rating and sub-ratings of corporate reporting.
Change in the market index of the “Economic strategies” (MIES) for the first quarter of 2018 is considered. Contribution of the supply and demand indicators to the MIES is estimated. Analysis of industrial production is carried out.
On March 1, 2018 President of Russia V.V. Putin in his annual address to the Federal Assembly said: “To move forward, to develop dynamically we must expand the space of freedom, strengthen the institutions of democracy, local government, structures of the civil society, courts and be a country open to the world”. However, Russia’s experience of the last quarter of the century shows that in fact, having opened to the world and strengthening democracy, we have only lost resources, dispersed and lost forces and almost lost “the will for daring labor”. The poor people are far away from daring work, they hardly survive with pasta and potatoes, the rich are bogged down in hedonism and consider “this country” only as a source of superprofits, and the power is wrapping the absence of a real working strategy and its own political will in beautiful verbal covers speaking about democracy, a free market and endless long-term and medium-term strategies and programs that have never been implemented. To practice the strategy of opening to the world, when the United States have already declared to all, in point of fact, a trade war, to put it mildly, is short-sighted. Yet no country has succeeded in creating or reviving industry without protecting its own producer. Is a new industrialization possible in such conditions and who can and should become its driving force?
The report examines positions and models of adapting the main Russian business groups (RBG) in 2018. The working hypotheses of scenario-based modeling were outlined in this report’s review, here the authors specify the set of basic variables (order parameters) for the USA (and the global economy in general) and Russia. Summarizing the self-destruction/demolition scenarios for the American and global financial system, the author comes to conclusion that business and the Russian state need to prepare for the worst “catastrophe” scenario, as in military sphere we must be prepared for attack with all the forces and means that the enemy has got. Collapse of the global financial system is actually an attack by all means and forces, especially in the context of “adequacy” of the Western elite to real threats and to the degree of responsibility that they have already demonstrated this year.
The article examines the macroeconomic results of 2017 and provides an analysis of problems related to overcoming risks and threats that hamper the acceleration of the development of various spheres of the economy. Comparisons are given of trends by the development of the Russian and world economies on the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic indicators. The forecasts of macroeconomic indicators for 2018–2019 are given.
The article analyzes three periods of the Russian economy: the transformation crisis of 1990–1998, characterized by depth and duration, the period of regenerative economic recovery in 1999–2008, during which a shift into nationalization and monopolization of the economy took place, as well as the period of 2009–2017, called the “lost decade” by the author, the period of deep financial and socio-economic crisis as part of the global world crisis. Possible prospects for development and ways of entrance into high-quality significant socio-economic growth are described.
Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategies” (CIES) for 2017 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.
The paper defines the essence of economic modernization, pinpoints its main types, reveals the causes of objective necessity for modernization of the Russian economy, analyses the key modernization problems and gives he author’s view on the considered issues.