New Strategy of Industrial Policy and Its Role in Modernization of the Russian Economy

#7. Connected Space
New Strategy of Industrial Policy and Its Role in Modernization of the Russian Economy

The article defines the essence of industrial police in the context of the main challenge — objective necessity of modernization of the Russian economy; special attention is given to three debatable aspects of elaboration of the new strategy of industrial police: defining its strategic goal, choice of strategic model of industrial development, defining the main directions of industrial policy. The key importance of the main statements of the Presidential Message to the Federal Assembly for handling these problems is underlined.

“Long Waves” in the Economy and the RF Currency Market

#7. Connected Space
“Long Waves” in the Economy and the RF Currency Market

The article dwells on actual problems — increase in the volatility of the ruble exchange rate and its depreciation in 2018. At the same time, it is assumed that dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in general reflects the underlying economic processes (including abroad). Before the economic crisis that began in 2008, the ruble exchange rate for many years was mainly strengthening, and its volatility was relatively low. The situation has changed because the economies of a number of countries (in particular, Russia) have entered into a long, difficult period. So, for about a decade, the Russian economy has been showing slow growth. At the same time, the ruble exchange rate tends to depreciate. This allows the authors to assume that dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, which passed from a long upward to a downward stage about ten years ago, may be associated with a similar transition of the economy of Russia and some other countries to a downward stage (in N.D. Kondratieff terminology). The article analyzes a number of approaches to the problems of “long waves” in the economy and a conclusion is drawn up on the necessity to develop the RF monetary strategy (taking into account long-term macroeconomic processes).

Scenarios for the Russian Economy: External Constraints and Internal Requirements for a New Contract Between Business and Government (Project Proposal for the Business Elite)

#6. For the High Norm
Scenarios for the Russian Economy: External Constraints and Internal Requirements for a New Contract Between Business and Government (Project Proposal for the Business Elite)

By the beginning of autumn 2018, the Russian government and business have fixed the status quo — any change in the model (including the contract between the government and big business, concluded 15-20 years ago as a result of “equidistant oligarchs”) is out of question. In business logic, the authority (arbitrator) does not have the right to require too much (compliance with the code of a builder, if not of communism, then of socially acceptable capitalism) or to play along with its own adherents (give contracts to state companies, redistribute assets, etc.). Although in fact this happens “sometimes and somewhere in our country” (in state-owned companies and the public sector), but is considered an exception to the rule of “sterile capitalism”: business on its own (“pay taxes and sleep well”). Analyzing historical options of combining contracts with the people and the elite: in Catherine’s and Peter’s periods, the authors present possible options for the modern combination of contracts between the government and business, as well as with the population: the current neoliberal course, the course towards a social market economy and a forced tough (mobilization) course.

Innovation Economy Strategy in Collaborative Mode

#6. For the High Norm
Innovation Economy Strategy in Collaborative Mode

The article analyzes the model of forming an innovative economy in a collaborative system based on the stable links of network partners that carry out collective actions on the basis of a common strategy, common identity and joint commitments in the aspect of forming innovative entrepreneurship in order to select the priority directions for developing science, technology and critical technologies that should be aimed at modernizing the economy in order to increase its competitiveness. It is proved that collaboration multiplies many times the productivity of existing production factors and serves as the main mechanism for balancing economies in the global competition conditions. The article justifies formation of an innovative territorial cluster as an aggregate of agents that establish homogeneous, multilateral and regularly recurring links for the joint use of information and knowledge, exchange of services and acquisition of economic benefits from the position of interaction between representatives of science/education, business and the state in order to promote the growth of innovative entrepreneurship. With successful deployment of joint initiatives, innovative territorial clusters develop the collaboration to such level where a unique network effect of innovative synergies (flow innovations) arises, which ensures the continuous growth of innovative entrepreneurship.

Spatial Development of Russia

#6. For the High Norm
Spatial Development of Russia

On November 22, the Russian Association of Innovative Development will hold the International Innovation and Industrial Forum “Technological Breakthrough” for the seventh time. The central theme of the forum in 2018 will be “Spatial Development of Russia”. Experts in the sphere of public administration, industry, science, representatives of the business community and public organizations will discuss how to improve the life quality and awaken the regions’ potential in order to achieve sustainable development. Marina Shichkina, General Director of the Russian Association of Innovative Development, and Irina Grishina, Vice-Chairman of the Council for Productive Forces Study of the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade under the Ministry for Economic Development, RANEPA Principal Research Associate, told about the concept of the upcoming event and about the Strategy of Spatial Development to the “ES” magazine – the information partner of the Forum.

The Results of the Half-Year of Optimism Were Not Added: the Threat of Sanctions — It’s Not for Long, It’s Forever!

#6. For the High Norm
The Results of the Half-Year of Optimism Were Not Added: the Threat of Sanctions — It’s Not for Long, It’s Forever!

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for the 1st half of 2018 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

Foresight of a Knowledge-Based Economy: in Search of Trajectory

#4. Until the Thunder Breaks Out
Foresight of a Knowledge-Based Economy: in Search of Trajectory

The author considers three generations of foresight to identify the vector and the logic of its development in order to build theoretical foundation and methodology of foresight in a knowledge-based economy. The article reveals that as the new economy comes into being and develops, a shift from the paradigm of linearity to complexity paradigm, from considering an object under research as a closed and static system to adaptive, dynamic, open, self-organizing systems of a new complexity level, developing in a globalizing economy, in rapidly changing environments with high level of uncertainty, occurs. Theoretical basis should be the theory of evolution, complexity and chaos.

Transparency of Systemically Important Companies in Russia

#4. Until the Thunder Breaks Out
Transparency of Systemically Important Companies in Russia

The present review of corporate transparency of Russian system-building companies is based on results of the annual national research of Russian companies’ corporate transparency prepared by the Russian regional network. This research is carried out since 2013 in order to examine the reporting quality of the largest Russian companies, to identify and to propagate best practices of corporate transparency, to make a rating and sub-ratings of corporate reporting.

Old New Tasks: What Does the Current Year Prepare for Us?

#4. Until the Thunder Breaks Out
Old New Tasks: What Does the Current Year Prepare for Us?

Change in the market index of the “Economic strategies” (MIES) for the first quarter of 2018 is considered. Contribution of the supply and demand indicators to the MIES is estimated. Analysis of industrial production is carried out.

How to Respond to Strategic Challenges: on the Agenda of Mobilization

#3. For Nothing, or an Invisible Threat
How to Respond to Strategic Challenges: on the Agenda of Mobilization

On March 1, 2018 President of Russia V.V. Putin in his annual address to the Federal Assembly said: “To move forward, to develop dynamically we must expand the space of freedom, strengthen the institutions of democracy, local government, structures of the civil society, courts and be a country open to the world”. However, Russia’s experience of the last quarter of the century shows that in fact, having opened to the world and strengthening democracy, we have only lost resources, dispersed and lost forces and almost lost “the will for daring labor”. The poor people are far away from daring work, they hardly survive with pasta and potatoes, the rich are bogged down in hedonism and consider “this country” only as a source of superprofits, and the power is wrapping the absence of a real working strategy and its own political will in beautiful verbal covers speaking about democracy, a free market and endless long-term and medium-term strategies and programs that have never been implemented. To practice the strategy of opening to the world, when the United States have already declared to all, in point of fact, a trade war, to put it mildly, is short-sighted. Yet no country has succeeded in creating or reviving industry without protecting its own producer. Is a new industrialization possible in such conditions and who can and should become its driving force?