Global Economy in a Transitional State

#6. Forecasts and Results
Global Economy in a Transitional State

The article draws parallels between the state of the present-day global economy and the Soviet economy in the 1980s. It is assumed that in both cases the diagnosis can be similar and is defined as the socio-economic stagnation. Its main features are: excessive and increasingly growing accumulation of commitments in economic, social, institutional and political spheres as well as lagging and eventually reducing in the course of time possibilities of their implementation. Accordingly, transition to a new model of the global economy may be associated with the same stages, which are known from domestic economic history — crisis, transition period, slow recovery. It is assumed that consumption boom unfolding in Asian countries, which is based on consumer crediting of the population, is becoming a key driver of transition from stagnation to crisis. The author analyses possible consequences for the global economy of a consumer society creation in Asian countries, especially in China. The basic painful consequences of competition between two models of consumer society are defined. The author formulates new global challenges with regard to such consequences and experience of the transition period in our country. It is proposed to take into account these challenges in developing long-term strategies for the development of certain countries or groups of countries, including Russia.

Global Economy in a Transitional State

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Global Economy in a Transitional State

The article draws parallels between the state of the present-day global economy and the Soviet economy in the 1980s. It is assumed that in both cases the diagnosis can be similar and is defined as the socio-economic stagnation. Its main features are: excessive and increasingly growing accumulation of commitments in economic, social, institutional and political spheres as well as lagging and eventually reducing in the course of time possibilities of their implementation. Accordingly, transition to a new model of the global economy may be associated with the same stages, which are known from domestic economic history — crisis, transition period, slow recovery. It is assumed that consumption boom unfolding in Asian countries, which is based on consumer crediting of the population, is becoming a key driver of transition from stagnation to crisis. The author analyses possible consequences for the global economy of a consumer society creation in Asian countries, especially in China. The basic painful consequences of competition between two models of consumer society are defined. The author formulates new global challenges with regard to such consequences and experience of the transition period in our country. It is proposed to take into account these challenges in developing long-term strategies for the development of certain countries or groups of countries, including Russia.

The Trend is Not Changing

#1. Choice of Identity
The Trend is Not Changing

The paper considers changes of the “Economic Strategies” opportunistic index (OIES) in 2013. The contribution of supply and demand indices into OIES is estimated. Industrial production analysis is performed.

Deterioration of Conjuncture

#6. Territory Without Aims?
Deterioration of Conjuncture

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for the January – July 2013 is considered. The contribution of supply and demand indicators to CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production for 2012 is carried out.

Steady Decrease

#5. The Forerunners of Memory

The Russian economy continues to deliver distressing news. In the first five months of 2013 market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) grew up by only 3.1 points. The article authors examine in detail the current state of the Russian economy in January – May 2013.

Russian Economy in 2012-2014: Trends, Analysis, Forecast

Market Pessimism

#1. Beyond Design Basis Evaluations

Major indicators dynamics of “Economic Strategy” market index (MIES) has negative character. In octobernovember MIES decreased by 1 point, and the industrial production index — by 1.3 points.

Essays of Economic Optimism in Times of Stagnation

#9. Any problem with?

 Historical analogies and parallels are dangerous, as conditions of development are radically changing. Yet I would run risk to call the post-crisis period in the development of new Russia – 2010-2011 and the number of successive years – the new times of stagnation.

Progress vs. Tradition. A Brief Course of 20th Century Russian History For Top Management

#4. 25 000 000: Wo dein Рlatz, Genosse, ist?!

Simultaneously with Khrushchev’s removal ended the heroic period of the Soviet Union. Henceforth, a new period began, the content of which was to try to avoid the looming ideological and economic crisis.

Evaluation of the Competitiveness of Nuclear Power Projects In the World Market

#7-8. Burning Ground

In the nearest 15 years up to 130 nuclear units could come into operation, from 40 to 80 of which — in Asia, with 15 reactors already under construction. The share of nuclear power in the world energy balance may rise up to 30%.