2022, January — May: Russia in the Context of Slowing Down Socio-economic Development

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.90-95

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for five months of 2022 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.


1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — mae 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-May 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-05-2022.pdf.

2. Osnovnye parametry stsenarnykh uslovii prognoza sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2023 god i na planovyi period 2024 i 2025 godov [Main Parameters of the Scenario Conditions for Forecasting Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the Planned Period of 2024 and 2025]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, available at: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/file/c56d9cd0365715292055fe5930854d59/scenarnye_usloviya_2023.pdf.

3. Informatsiya o Plenarnom zasedanii Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma s uchastiem Prezidenta RF 17 iyunya 2022 g. [Information on the Plenary Meeting of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with Participation of the President of the Russian Federation on June 17, 2022]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669.

4. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. 2021: stagflyatsiya ili tekhnologicheskii suverenitet — inogo ne dano! [2021: Stagflation or Technological Sovereignty — No Other Choice!]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 2, pp. 86–91, DOI: 10.33917/es-2.182.2022.86-91.

On Sanctions and the Exchange Rate

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.17-21

The article emphasizes that freezing of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves was previously accurately predicted by Russian experts. Attention is drawn to the fact that weakening of the ruble was one of the goals of the sanctions impact on the Russian economy that Western countries were bearing in mind. It is obvious that the exact opposite — preventing its depreciation and turning the ruble into a stable strong currency — is an anti-sanction measure. With high dependence of the Russian economy on imports, as well as in the situation when it is necessary to find alternative ways for imports (primarily for investment), which will lead to their higher prices with corresponding consequences, an excessive exchange rate depreciation may adversely affect economic development, especially in a long term. In addition, extremely important is ensuring stability of the exchange rate. It is concluded that stable and non-depreciating ruble will form the basis for consistent development of business and expand the possibilities for using the ruble in foreign trade settlements as well. It is particularly relevant in the context of restrictions on the use of leading currencies in foreign trade.



1. Ershov M.V. Sanktsii protiv RF: mekhanizmy neitralizatsii [Sanctions Against the Russian Federation: Neutralization Mechanisms]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2017, no 7, pp. 46–51.

2. Baiden ogovorilsya, zayaviv, chto dollar stoit 200 rublei [Biden Made a Slip of the Tongue Saying That the Dollar is Worth 200 Rubles]. RIA Novosti, 2022, March, 26, available at: https://ria.ru/20220326/bayden-1780271172.html.

3. Sanktsii SShA protiv TsB i Minfina perekroyut dostup k rezervam dlya podderzhki rublya [US Sanctions Against the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will Block Access to Reserves for Supporting the Ruble]. Interfaks, 2022, February, 28, available at: https://www.interfax.ru/business/825191.

4. Bank Rossii. O chem govoryat trendy [Bank of Russia. What are the Trends Saying?]. BCS Express, 2022, April, 22, available at: https://bcs-express.ru/novosti-i-analitika/bank-rossii-o-chem-govoriat-trendy.

5. SMI: EK zayavila, chto ukaz ob oplate gaza v rublyakh narushaet sanktsii ES [Media: EC Said That the Decree on Gas Payments in Rubles Violates EU Sanctions]. RIA Novosti, 2022, April, 14, available at: https://ria.ru/20220414/gaz-1783434893.html.

6. Russia’s ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year. CBS NEWS, 2022, May, 27, available at: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-rublecurrency-2022/

7. Ershov M.V. Valyutnaya politika kak faktor natsional’noi bezopasnosti [Monetary Policy as National Security Factor]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 4, pp. 20–29.

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10. BIS. Quarterly Review. International banking and financial market developments. June 2022.

Modern features and contradictions of economic security development in Russia

DOI: 110.33917/mic-2.103.2022.98-103

The article deals with the conceptual provisions of Russia’s economic security. The authors analyzed the existing approaches to the definition of the concept of «economic security». It is concluded that social, technogenic, informational and other processes directly affect the provision of economic security of the state. On the example of the situation in Russia, the main areas are identified, the impact on which with the help of economic instruments can cause significant damage to security in the context of the problems of «economic stability» at the national and regional levels. An assessment of the key threats to the economic security of the Russian Federation is given.


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The Economic Attack on Russia and the Policy of Counteraction

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.40-47

The purpose of the study is to show the patterns of the deployment of an economic attack on Russia. The research methodology is a comparative and retrospective analysis, elements of a structural approach. In the course of the analysis, a result was obtained that boils down to the fact that the current model of the world economy with a high level of integration and dependence of the economy poses a threat to the national security of the country. Economic warfare is carried out through damaging sanctions. Good conditions for it were created by the liberal economic policy pursued in Russia, which held back growth. Moreover, such outcomes are typical not only for economic activity, but also for the functioning of science and education — “invisible” sanctions, which creates a long-term perspective of dependent and driven development. It is necessary to ensure control over the distribution of property owners in the domestic market, planning procedures that are reduced to the establishment of thresholds in the field of imports, exports in various areas of activity, as well as the admission of foreign resources and institutional rules to the domestic market. With the implementation of such an institutional policy, sanctions would cause much less damage or their negative effect would be absent. Today, it is necessary to resist the economic attack by maximizing the withdrawal of assets from the dollar denomination, pursuing an anti-devaluation policy, cutting off the banking system from the speculative depreciation game, and intensifying efforts to replace imports in each industry. It is required to close the contours of production to the domestic market with the re-profiling of production, practicing the seizure of foreign property as a response to similar external actions. Such actions require a systematic state policy in all areas of coordination of industries and activities.



1. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Bitva za lide rstvo v XXI veke. Rossiya, SShA, Kitai. Sem’ variantov blizhaishego budushchego [The Battle for Leadership in the XXI Century. Russia, USA, China. Seven Options for the Near Future]. Moscow, Knizhnyi mir, 2017, 352 p.

2. L’vov D.S. Ekonomika razvitiya [Development Economics]. Moscow, Ekzamen, 2002, 512 p.

3. Sukharev O.S. “Izvrashchennyi monetarism” budet diktovat’ ekonomicheskuyu strategiyu razvitiya Rossii? [“Perverted Monetarism” will Dictate the Economic Development Strategy of Russia?]. Investitsii v Rossii, 2017, no 6, pp. 27–35.

4. Krugman P. Depressii — eto nechto inoe [Depression is Something Else]. Ekonomika dlya lyuboznatel’nykh: o chem razmyshlyayut nobelevskie laureaty. Moscow, Izd-vo instituta Gaidara, 2017, pp. 26–27.

5. Sukharev O.S. Ekonomicheskie sanktsii: problema otsenki ushcherba [Economic Sanctions: the Problem of Damage Assessment]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel’stvo, 2017, no 8-4, vol. 11, pp. 80–87.

6. Anchishkin A.I. Prognozirovanie tempov i faktorov ekonomicheskogo rosta [Forecasting Rates and Factors of Economic Growth]. Moscow, Maks-Press, 2003, 300 p.

Economic and Mathematical Modeling of Russia’s Economic Security in the Period Under Sanctions

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.168.2020.32-39

For the study, the time period of introducing economic sanctions against the Russian Federation was selected. In consideration are taken the data of Rosstat in terms of finding the values of indicators of our state’s economic security (2013–2017). A correlation and regression analysis of this system, consisting of 15 indicators, was carried out. An economic-mathematical model of the sanctions impact on the economic security of Russia was compiled. To solve this problem, the authors used a correlation-regression analysis, the regression equation was found and statistical significance of the constructed model was substantiated. The findings were recommended to specialists in the sphere of improving the state’s economic security

Russia and the EU: Dynamics and Structure of Trade Relations

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.167.2020.36-41

The traditional and most developed form of international economic relations is foreign trade. This article analyzes the dynamics and structure of Russia’s foreign trade with the EU countries in the period from 2011 to 2018. It should be emphasized that external challenges not of an economic but of a political nature have led to the disruption of economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and the EU, including in the field of trade, which underlines the relevance of this study. The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of sanctions and counter-sanctions on the dynamics and structure of mutual trade between Russia and the EU

All This Jazz. Strategic Trends in 2018

#2. Breakthrough Betting
All This Jazz. Strategic Trends in 2018

The article is a review of strategic trends of the past year, which has become traditional for the Economic Strategies magazine. According to the authors, despite the fact that the year was not particularly remarkable, a number of significant events occurred. The main trend of the year was the confrontation of President Trump and the Democrats. This reflects the trend of cyclical development, when at a certain point a concentration of efforts of one or another nation occurs, and, if it is successful, then external expansion follows. Currently, the US foreign expansion, called globalization, does not have sufficient resources for its continuation. The authors describe the situation in nine different areas of the country’s life, corresponding to parameters of the national integral power: economics, foreign policy, army, territory, natural resources, culture and religion, science and education, population, government.

Russian Business Elite: Adaptation Scenarios for Companies and Individuals in 2018. Announcement of Scenario Report

#1. Event Horison
Russian Business Elite: Adaptation Scenarios for Companies and Individuals in 2018. Announcement of Scenario Report

The purpose of this report is to initiate a wide-ranging discussion (both on open platforms, and in corporate and state-public closed mode), and to help organizations and individuals affected by extrajudicial sanctions and persecutions to work out a strategy and tactics of confrontation, both for their own benefit and for the benefit of the public. The authors give scenarios of financial and economic dynamics in 2018 and identify probable parameters of collapse or “controlled demolition”, analyze the consequences of external influence on Russia and its political and economic elite.

Assessment of the Sanctions Impact on the Economic Situation in the Russian Federation

#1. Event Horison
Assessment of the Sanctions Impact on the Economic Situation in the Russian Federation

Introduction of sanctions, contrary to the statements of Russian politicians, has an impact on the Russian economy, and the impact is quite negative. The crisis in the Russian economy is confirmed by macro-indicators. Despite this, distortion of statistical data allows to demonstrate the illusion of economic growth, although it is seen only in certain sectors of economy. Real incomes of the population have also decreased and continue to fall down. The article proposes a number of strategic measures that will allow to minimize the damage caused by the imposed sanctions and even partially to benefit from them for the Russian economy.

Progenitor of Eurodollar

#1. Long-Lasting Choice
Progenitor of Eurodollar

The article tells the history of creating a widespread now financial instrument — Eurodollar, about the role in its appearance of the USSR and the Soviet banks abroad — Moscow Narodny Bank in London and Eurobank in Paris, about the events preceding its appearance — the International Monetary and Financial Conference in Bretton-Woods, about the USSR’s attempts to escape from American sanctions. The article describes the consequences of introducing Eurodollar, of establishing new order for US dollar use in the world and the punishment of countries not supporting these new rules. One example of control over implementation of sanctions imposed by the United States is the story of punishing the Soviet Union for trade with Cuba, when US dollars, been applied by Moscow Narodny Bank for buying Cuban sugar, were blocked for 30 years. The article is dedicated to professionalism and ingenuity of the Soviet bankers and to the errors they committed, by inexperience.