Modeling Depopulation Trends in the Community of Countries with Different Economic Development Levels

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.183.2022.26-37

In this paper, an attempt is made to develop a mathematical model of population growth, based on socio-economic factors of the development of the countries’ community, as well as population migration. The author presents intermediate results of his review where he studies economic community, characterized by a very uneven development of regions. Mathematical model is proposed in which a conditional “center” and “periphery” (“global city” and “world village”) are distinguished. From the analysis of the existing socio-economic conditions of development it follows that “periphery” traditionally acts as a demographic donor for the “center”. Examples of such systems include, in particular, relations of the EU-Baltic republics, the EU-Ukraine, and Russia–EAEU countries. As an explanatory principle, it is proposed to use the concept of “institutional trap”. From the mathematical model point of view, this means rigidly fixed coefficients of connection between the system elements implementing one-way connection (toward the “center”). Possible mechanisms, influencing the dynamics of the system through adopting appropriate managerial decisions, are discussed. Obtained results prove the importance of adequate mathematical models for optimizing the strategic management of society.

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On the National Idea of the Russia

#2. Noah’s Caste
On the National Idea of the Russia

In work integrated (synergetic) approach to a problem of evolution of national (state) idea is used. In him mathematical modeling, the dynamic theory of information and the concept of civilizations are combined. It allows to define accurately the concept “national idea” and to track his role in evolution of society. The special attention is paid to a situation in modern Russia.

Model of the Modern Russian Economy: Methods, Technology, Results

#9. Plus-minus 40

A good model can give a reasonable forecast in the field of its competence, subject to maintaining the existing economic relations, can identify threats to established order, but it does not allow to predict what will replace this order after the crisis.