The Digital Twin (Artificial Society) of the Socio-Economic System of Russia is a Platform for Experiments in the Field of Managing Demographic Processes

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19

One of the most promising tools for monitoring and predicting social processes are agent-based models, which are widely used abroad. Their advantage lies in the consideration of the system under study at the level of its individual individuals, which increases the realism of these computer-based assessment methods. In Russia, this direction is also developing, although not so actively. The article discusses the dynamics of the population of Russia, as well as the factors of increasing the birth rate, successful examples of the practical implementation of agent models for studying social processes, a brief description of the model we developed, which includes 146 million agents, is given. With the help of this tool, a forecast of the population of Russia and an assessment of the impact on this indicator of some measures aimed at improving the demographic situation were obtained.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I. Modelirovanie i otsenka natsional’noi sily Rossii [Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 2, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19.

2. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

3. Andreev E.M., Darskii L.E., Khar’kova T.L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993, 143 p.

4. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service], available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru.

5. Zdravookhranenie [Healthcare]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at:  https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/13721.

6. Sobotka T., Matysiak A., Brzozowska Z. Policy responses to low fertility: How effective are they? Working Paper, May, 2019, N 1, available at: https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Policy_responses_low_fertility_UNFPA_WP_Final_corrections_7Feb2020_CLEAN.pdf.

7. The World Bank, available at: https://data.worldbank.org.

8. Aganbegyan A.G. O katastroficheskom uvelichenii smertnosti i merakh po sberezheniyu naroda v Rossii [On Catastrophic Increase in Mortality and Measures to Save the People in Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 4, pp. 6–13, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.6-13.

9. Country Comparisons — Death Rate. The World Factbook, available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison.

10. Goldstein J.R., Koulovatianos C., Li J., Schr der C. Evaluating how child allowances and daycare subsidies affect fertility. Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, available at: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-430067.

11. Kalwij A. The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe. Demography, 2010, N 47(2), pp. 503–519, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0104.

Digitalization: Sociology and Law, Concept and Practice of Socialization

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.6-19

The article highlights the short history of the Russian and world digitalization in details, focusing on the identified problems and priorities, which must be resolved if to successfully build and further effectively function information society in all its aspects.

The theoretical part has formed important opinions and ideas about the topic under study and shows that the spread of digital technology in all spheres of life is evidence of an active stage in the transition of human civilization from an industrial development stage to a digital one with social reality relevant to it. An analysis to identify the process of digitalizing human civilization’s linear development vector based on creating an indicative planning system allowed the author to conclude that there is a long-awaited transition to a purposeful scientific management of society and the state.

As it follows from the title of the article, legal coverage and all-round socialization are dominant in providing a successful solution to many challenges of digitalization. Russia’s political class is fully aware of the need to develop legal provisions, which are able to successfully prevent and mitigate possible threats to information society. It is primarily about the data breach related to both the functioning of the State and corporate/personal data. But the proposed draft legal acts of various kinds do not provide enough insight into how these protective, desirably preventive measures will be globally and nationally ensured.

Digitalization offers great opportunities for a rapid economic and social recovery to society. Developing information and communication technology gives an unprecedented rise in productivity, creates new forms of work organization, ensures conditions for increased trade in goods and services, offers infinite possibilities for education, communication between representatives of various societies and cultures, community commitment and network. The challenges of digitalization are so complicated that they do not seem possible to be solved by legal precedents without enhancing the population’s moral upbringing. The efforts of the really responsible citizens, the users of digital technology, the Internet initially can only effectively confront a new global digital environment in which there are opportunities to act rather immorally while at the same time anonymously and with impunity. We shall have to act gradually, but as strict as possible in the domestic and international legalization of the “digital environment”, paying a special attention to its moral dimension and the creation of particular barriers for ethical violations.

Источники:

 

1. Moiseev N.N. S myslyami o budushchem Rossii [Thinking About the Future of Russia]. Moscow, Fond sodeistviya razvitiyu sotsial’nykh i politicheskikh nauk, 1997, pp. 59–60.

2. Pochemu Mask ne da Vinchi. Kasperskaya — o tsifrovom kontrole i “kloune” iz SShA [Why Musk is not da Vinci. Mrs Kaspersky — About Digital Control and the “Clown” from the USA]. Argumenty i fakty, 2021, June, 25, available at: https://aif.ru/society/web/pochemu_mask_ne_da_vinchi_kasperskaya_-_o_cifrovom_kontrole_i_kloune_iz_ssha.

Raising Labor Productivity: from the Shchekino Experiment (1967) to the “Labor Productivity and Employment Support” National Project (2018). What’s Next?

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.179.2021.78-95

The article provides examples of introducing advanced management practices at Russian enterprises, and also describes the experience of highly skilled managers with an adequate to market realities mentality. According to the author, by actively mastering the three “whales” — management, mentality and business culture — we increase labor productivity, and therefore we have every reason to increase the workers’ wages, which are unacceptably low today.

Russia in Supercritical Situation: Managing Restoration of Life-Support Functions to Overcome the Consequences of a Natural Macro Catastrophe

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.179.2021.28-35

Supercritical fluid is a state of matter when its temperature and pressure are above the critical point. Supercritical situation is a state of the economy in its cumulative manifestations and mutual influence, whereby the state of key life-support profiles is below the critical point of controllability. Various forecasts are increasingly actualizing the probability of a natural (and man-made) macro-catastrophe (a large meteorite fall, an earthquake of 10–12 points and others, as well as a pandemic similar to COVID–19, but with more severe consequences). As the coronavirus pandemic has shown, modern civilization is becoming ever more vulnerable to such disasters. To overcome the destabilizing trends of a natural (and man-made) macro-catastrophe, it is necessary to adopt proactively a set of measures in Russia that will drastically increase the efficiency of public administration in relation to the list of regulated resource,  economic, technical, social and other parameters incorporating mechanisms and procedures of public administration into market mechanisms and the budgeting structure with regard to external and internal factors of the supersystem’s vital activities

Raising Labor Productivity: from the Shchekino Experiment (1967) to the “Labor Productivity and Employment Support” National Project (2018). What’s Next?

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.92-103

The article provides examples of introducing advanced management practices at Russian enterprises, and also describes the experience of highly skilled managers with an adequate to market realities mentality. According to the author, by actively mastering the three “whales” — management, mentality and business culture — we increase labor productivity, and therefore we have every reason to increase the workers’ wages, which are unacceptably low today

Differentiation of methods of competitiveness management on the example of the service market of services

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.98.2021.32-38

The scientific article puts forward theoretical and practical provisions, in aggregate constituting a new method of managing competitiveness in the service sector. The methodology proposed by the author makes it possible to ensure the effectiveness of the process of managing competitiveness in market conditions and instability of economic development, and can also be used for subsequent scientific and theoretical research, and in the practical activities of service enterprises in the course of developing effective management decisions.

Net-Centric System of Elevated Stability (Survivability) of Energy Management in Russia Under Difficult-to-predict Critical Conditions

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.6-17

Energy sector, like the defence complex, is one of the key industries that serve as a basis for the life support processes of the country and the resulting stability of the state political structure. World practice has clearly demonstrated the key dependence of domestic political and social stability on reliability and sustainability of energy supply. Multifactorial survivability of the energy supersystem under normal and critical conditions of natural and anthropogenic origin can be provided through forming a net-centric system of elevated management stability, based on a distributed network of inter-corporate disaster-resistant data centers for processing and storing extremely large data sets. It is proposed to use data centers as bases for digital “twins” of energy facilities and processes in order to finally achieve a new quality of control based on digital topology within a single digital model of the energy supersystem with the possibility of secure collection, storage, processing and exchange of data, necessary for managing power facilities of various sectoral subsystems of the Russian fuel and energy complex, as well as for regional and municipal authorities. Application of digital topology makes it possible, during local interactions, to search for and implement solutions for moving towards local, network and polycentric resource-operational optima in order to minimize costs (price burden on the consumer) of separate companies and the entire industry with the aim of maintaining reliability and sustainability of energy supply, including security costs of the critical information infrastructure systems

Peculiarities of the Valuation Activities Ttransformation in Russia Based on the Value Management Priorities of the Life Cycles of Goods, Works and Services

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.72-85

The article discusses particular features of the appraisal activities transformation in the Russian Federation, focused on the priority methodology in cost management of the appraisal objects’ life cycles as the basis for sustainable socio-economic development, especially in implementing national projects. The relevance of this study is based on the importance of solving such a national economic problem as providing the launch of innovative high-tech investment cycles in development of industries, enterprises and investment projects based on forming an updated methodological base for appraisal activities focused on long-term strategic cycles with planning horizon up to 60 years. Furthermore, as the main national evaluation ideology it is proposed to use the concept of formalizing evaluation and value management processes in economic systems, where the main object of assessment is the life cycle of goods, products and works, which are characterized by innovative, high-tech qualities of a breakthrough highly competitive type, as well as by the effect of emergence and synergy.

The aim of the present study is to elaborate a set of relevant search methodological proposals and recommendations for modeling the transformation processes of the national evaluation activity of Russia based on the priorities of cost evaluation and of the life cycles management of goods and works that can provide sustainable and breakthrough socio-economic development of the country on the long-term strategic basis with a planning horizon of up to 50-60 years, with a view to ensuring priority implementation of national projects.

The study is focused on the processes of genesis and  transformation of national appraisal activity in the course of exploratory fundamental research in the field of modeling theoretical provisions and conceptual approaches to structuring methodological framework of evaluation and management of costs, life cycles of goods in the process of implementing national projects based on minimizing the cost of their life cycles, contracts on life cycles, total costs and life cycles’ cost of ownership.

Integrated and systemic approaches based on analysis and synthesis, logical analysis, expert approach, methods of economic and mathematical modeling and forecasting were used as research methods.

Attributive model of innovative solutions: from theory to practice

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.96.2021.22-26

The scientific article reveals attributive models of innovative solutions on the example of information technology; the application of multichannel attribution in the field of small and medium-sized businesses has been substantiated, and key principles for the successful strategic development of innovations have been proposed.

Digital imperatives of economic management within the cross-border economic spaces of international integration associations (unions) with the participation of Russia

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.96.2021.5-10

The problems of forming a unified digital information environment of a group of industry and cross-industry clusters of large and medium-sized companies within the framework of international integration associations (unions) with the participation of Russia are considered. The possibility and expediency of involving various types of resources distributed over economic spaces into the control loop has been substantiated. It is proposed to form resource- and object- (agent-based) structured matrices of effective demand and cooperative supply of products and services in Russia and abroad.