Trade War Between the USA and China: Who will Win?

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.56-65

Regular meeting of the Bogomolov Club, held at the Institute for Economic Strategies on January 28, 2020, was dedicated to the issues of trade and economic war between the USA and China. The keynote address was delivered by the famous Russian sinologist, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Center for Social and Economic Research of China at the RAS Institute of the Far East, member of the Russian Association of Sinologists, the European Association of Chinese Studies Andrey V. Ostrovsky.

In Expectation of Investment Growth

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.166.2019.16-23

At the present moment Russia faces the problem of increasing the economic growth rates to the average world rates. As the country economy was in crisis and post-crises conditions for several years, so the effective measures should be taken in all economic fields. Here, the question of investment activity comes to the fore. In spite of the fastening in economic growth as of 2018 according to the official data, investments in Russia in conditions of a high external and internal uncertainty have not yet recovered to pre-crisis level. The article raises the issue about necessity of creation a conductive investment environment, special measures and programmes orientated on the local and foreign investors which can help to increase the investments volume and quality and to promote Russia’s economic growth

Recombination of Developing Countries’ Debts to Russia: Conversion of Financial Debt in the Long-Term Lease of Property Assets

The article aims to consider the possibilities of handling the developing countries’ debts to Russia. A model for converting financial debt into long-term lease of property assets (territory, water area, etc.) is proposed. Recombination of debts for the long-term lease of territory will allow our country to achieve geostrategic results now or postpone it for the future, when it becomes especially profitable for us. This model of setting off (paying) the debt of the debtor country for Russia’s right to lease a part of the debtor country’s territory for 100 years ahead with exclusive use rights like a special economic zone should protect the interests of Russia and Russian companies, with regard to possible future situations of both peaceful and military character. Experience of the USA, which leased Alaska from the Russian Empire and is still giving it back, confirms the proposed model effectiveness

Macroeconomic Policy and Structural Changes: Alternatives Transmission Mechanism

#2. Breakthrough Betting
Macroeconomic Policy and Structural Changes: Alternatives Transmission Mechanism

The issue of the connection of current macroeconomic policy measures and structural changes is being investigated. Approaches that focus on the behavior of macroaggregates, as a rule, do not take into account the structural and institutional characteristics of the economic system. These characteristics are now becoming relevant in the field of economic development. Macroeconomic policy is based on a transfer mechanism, which is a set of measures and instruments that affect economic dynamics. However, until now the transfer mechanism of macroeconomic policy has changed, without taking into account structural and institutional characteristics — the Keynesian prescriptions have been replaced by monetarist, “offer economics”, “real cycle theory”, and theoretical generalizations were the basis of the transfer mechanism. The modern economy is changing so rapidly that the fundamental generalizations lag behind the pace of these changes, which leads experts responsible for macroeconomic policy to develop measures according to the practical feasibility and vision of solving certain problems, sometimes based on a priori established connection of individual parameters, for example, the money supply and GDP, inflation and employment levels, or inflation and money supply, etc. Usually the presence of feedbacks is considered weakly, as well as does not subordinate the measures of the current policy of the country’s development strategy, since the strategic program is simply another set of tools that should lead to different results.

Global Asian Energy Ring: Contours of Energy System of the XXI Century

#1. Minds Confusion
Global Asian Energy Ring: Contours of Energy System of the XXI Century

Macroeconomic problems and political games of our Western “partners” have mainstreamed the task of diversifying the routes and simultaneously expanding the volumes of Russian and transit electricity exports abroad. Given constantly increasing energy consumption in Asian countries, it is the Asian export vector of Russian fuel and energy resources that seems most promising, updating the development of fuel and energy infrastructure for integrating the energy system of Russia and the energy systems of a group of key countries in Eastern, Southern and Western Asia. This vector from the viewpoint of considering the fuel and energy infrastructure as a metasystem is expedient to realize through forming the Global Asian Energy Ring, taking into account the unique experience of the UES of the USSR and the Mir energy system. A unified energy supply system and mechanisms for resource and financial coordination within the framework of the Global Asian Energy Ring can form the basis for ensuring political and economic competitiveness of a group of key countries in Eastern, Southern and Western Asia, based on a key energy partner, being also the main guarantor of energy supplies (collective energy security) — Russia.

Experience of Managing Competitiveness in the Innovation Environment Using the Case of Eastern Countries

#7. Foresight Boom
Experience of Managing Competitiveness in the Innovation Environment Using the Case of Eastern Countries

Modern innovative environment provides many opportunities for managing competitiveness of the national economy. Experience of managing competitiveness in the innovation environment seems useful in terms of studying the factors of innovative development and identifying promising directions of the national economy of the Republic of Belarus, in particular, the machine-building complex. As the objects of research, the author selected such countries as Korea, Japan, Thailand, China and Singapore.

Normalization of Relations Between Russia and Georgia Relies on Implementation of Mutually Beneficial Projects

#2. Alliance Great
Normalization of Relations Between Russia and Georgia Relies on Implementation of Mutually Beneficial Projects

The article dwells on normalization of bilateral relations between Russia and Georgia. Developing ways of economic cooperation within international projects, as well as implementation of joint projects will allow to establish relations between two countries.

Azerbaijan — a Key Player in the Transcaucasus

#7. Hysteresis Loop
Azerbaijan — a Key Player in the Transcaucasus

The article dwells on the possibilities and prospects of Azerbaijan in the current difficult political and economic situation in the world and the country. Removing sanctions from Iran, tension in Russian-Turkish relations, oil prices decline, escalation of Karabakh conflict — how these and other factors will affect the economy of one of the most developed countries of the Transcaucasus.

China’s Bifurcation Point: Search for a New Strategic Model

#2. Noah’s Caste
China's Bifurcation Point: Search for a New Strategic Model

In the last period every year the global economy was increasingly dependent on the pace of China’s economy development, on which many countries have traditionally pinned their hopes for successful exit from the crisis. 2015 has clearly and unequivocally demonstrated the tendency of Chinese critical instability increase. There are many reasons, and one of the most important was the change in the US policy — termination of “quantitative easing” programs, which determines conditions of demand for Chinese goods and the volume of their exports. Once and for all the credit character of “successful” China’s economic growth became apparent, the possibility of obtaining the effect from realizing the model of financial incentives to China’s national economy through increasing the volume of loans and investments is almost exhausted. The main conclusion: there is a direct correlation between the consequences of investment and industrial glut in China due to extreme economic growth and strengthening of structural economic and financial disproportions laying the contours of inevitably arising from them a new round of Chinese and the global economic crises.

New Course: a Breakthrough Strategy

#4. Why that is needed?
New Course: a Breakthrough Strategy

The article proposes a systematic, pragmatic and creative approach to analyzing status and prospects of the Russian economy development in the context of global instability. This approach is distinguished by economic reality perception in all its complexity, characterized by nonlinearity, non-equilibrium and uncertainty of socio-economic development processes, by their laws awareness. On the basis of its application the authors have developed proposals for implementing an integrated public policies system for economy development and modernization on the advanced structural and technological basis, the implementation of which will accelerate the pace of economic growth and will allow to pass on to innovative development define for Russian economy in the world economic system. Nevertheless, let’s look at the situation from a viewpoint of non-economist.