Inflation Factors in Modern Russia, the Specter of Recession and Stability Reserves

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.70-77

The most important factor of inflation in the modern Russian economy is investment support for backward technologies.

The cheapness of labour and the low rate of accumulation cause a backwardness funnel into which the economy is gradually plunging. Meanwhile, interventions of the Bank of Russia weaken the national currency, provoke new waves of inflation and block economic growth. At the same time, the Russian economy has certain reserves of stability, based on the presence of a number of built-in stabilizers, identified through regression analysis. A set of measures aimed at overcoming the current unfavourable dynamics of the economic environment is proposed and justified.

References:

1. Zhizn’ vzaimy. Kak peregrelas’ rossiiskaya ekonomika i chem eto grozit [Life on Borrowed Time. How the Russian Economy Overheated and what it Threatens]. NUR.KZ, 2023, 8 avgusta, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/ZNHKoql33BP55hHi?encoded_pulse_user_info=PDubqO-mOXxJtkXI01sTPDSj4o_

Q7q8ajWIqVL5OKPXKtXjqwwubLYQ9uqJHRpSNnu6u6WiAaaTXMl_h8g6euw:1691563565003&from_site=mai

2. Nizhegorodtsev R.M., Gorid’ko N.P., Ivanov E.Yu., Trenev N.N., Skachkova M.A. Gorizonty ekonomicheskogo rosta: faktory, riski, instituty: Nauch. Monografiya [Horizons of Economic Growth: Factors, Risks, Institutions: Scientific monograph.]. Ed. R.M. Nizhegorodtseva. Moscow, NIPKTs “Voskhod-A”, 2022, 184 p.

3. Kochetov Aleksei. Zapadnye eksperty prishli k vyvodu, chto ekonomika Rossii dolzhna byt’ v 3–5 raz bol’she, chem ob etom zayavlyayut… [Western Experts Have Come to the Conclusion that the Russian Economy Should be 3–5 Times Larger than Stated…]. Dzen.ru, 2023, 27 maya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/ZG4spOPg13Hyab99?from_site=mail

Outcomes of Russia’s strategic development in January-April 2023 are better than pessimistic forecasts

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.86-91

The author dwells on the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for the first four months of 2023.

Contribution of supply and demand indicators to the MIES is assessed. Analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — mae 2023 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-May 2023: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-05-2023.pdf.

2. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — aprele 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-April 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-01-2023.pdf.

3. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. “Nepredskazuemye” itogi 2022 goda i potentsial’nye ugrozy strategicheskomu razvitiyu Rossii v tekushchem godu [“Unpredictable” Results of 2022 and Potential Threats to Russia’s Strategic Development in the Current Year]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 2(188), pp. 44–49, DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.44-49.

4. Informatsiya o plenarnom zasedanii XXVI Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma 16 iyunya 2023 g. [Information on the plenary meeting of the XXVI St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 16, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta R, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71445.ru/events/president/news/70565.

Debates Around the Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.50-55

Examines the monetary policy features in the context of the investment agenda. Current policy of the Bank of Russia is analyzed. Business profitability accounting in the monetary policy of the financial regulator contribute to the growth of Russian companies’ investment activity.

References:

1. Lutsenko S.I. Dokhodnost’ biznesa i denezhno-kreditnaya politika [Profitability of Business and Monetary Policy]. Strategicheskie resheniya i riskmenedzhment, 2022, no 4, pp. 326–332.

2. Konstitutsiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii (prinyata vsenarodnym golosovaniem 12 dekabrya 1993 g. s izmeneniyami, odobrennymi v khode obshcherossiiskogo golosovaniya 1 iyulya 2020 g.) [The Constitution of the Russian Federation (adopted by popular vote on 12/12/1993 with amendments approved during the all-Russian vote on 07/01/2020)]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/constitution.

3. Opredelenie Konstitutsionnogo suda RF ot 14 dekabrya 2000 g. no 268-O [Determination of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation of December 14, 2000 No. 268-O]. Vestnik Konstitutsionnogo suda RF, 2001, no 2.

4. Opredelenie Konstitutsionnogo suda RF ot 15 yanvarya 2003 g. no 45-O [Determination of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation of January 15, 2003 No. 45-O]. Vestnik Konstitutsionnogo suda RF, 2003, no 3.

5. Federal’nyi zakon ot 10 iyulya 2002 g. no 86-FZ “O Tsentral’nom banke Rossiiskoi Federatsii (Banke Rossii)” [Federal Law of July 10, 2002 No. 86-FZ “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)”]. Sobranie zakonodatel’stva RF, 2002, no 28.

6. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov (utv. Bankom Rossii) [The main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2023 and the period of 2024 and 2025 (approved by the Bank of Russia)]. Konsul’tantPlyus, available at: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_430425.

7. Informatsiya Banka Rossii ot 24 maya 2019 g. “MVF nazval targetirovanie inflyatsii i gibkii obmennyi kurs odnimi iz klyuchevykh predposylok dlya povysheniya potentsiala rosta rossiiskoi ekonomiki” [Information from the Bank of Russia dated May 24, 2019 “The IMF called inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate one of the key prerequisites for increasing the growth potential of the Russian economy”]. Vestnik Banka Rossii, 2019, no 34.

8. Informatsionnoe soobshchenie Banka Rossii ot 21 noyabrya 2019 g. “Missiya MVF zayavila o vazhnosti sokhraneniya v Rossii prochnoi makroekonomicheskoi osnovy” [Information message of the Bank of Russia dated November 21, 2019 “The IMF mission declared the importance of maintaining a solid macroeconomic foundation in Russia”]. Vestnik Banka Rossii, 2019, no 74.

9. Prikaz Minsel’khoza Rossii ot 19 marta 2014 g. no 83 “Ob utverzhdenii otraslevoi tselevoi programmy “Razvitie khlebopekarnoi promyshlennosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2014–2016 gody” [Order of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia dated March 19, 2014 no. 83 “On approval of the sectoral target program “Development of the baking industry of the Russian Federation for 2014-2016”]. Konsul’tantPlyus, available at: https://www.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req=doc&base=EXP&n=582610#8c8RoZTUXZLWGs3n.

“Unpredictable” Results of 2022 and Potential Threats to Russia’s Strategic Development in the Current Year

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.44-49

The article addresses the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for 2022. Contribution of the supply and demand indicators to the KIES is assessed. Dynamics of industrial production is analyzed.

References:

1. Poslanie Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii Federal’nomu sobraniyu Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 21 fevralya 2023 g. [Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of February 21, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70565.

2. Otsenka chislennosti postoyannogo naseleniya na 1 yanvarya 2023 g. i v srednem za 2022 g. i komponenty ee izmeneniya (s uchetom itogov Vserossiiskoi perepisi naseleniya 2020 g.) [Estimated Resident Population as of January 1, 2023 and on Average for 2022 and Components of its Change (Against Results of the 2020 All-Russian Population Census)]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/12781.

3. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — dekabre 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-December 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-12-2022.pdf.

4. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare 2023 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January 2023: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-01-2023.pdf.

5. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Itogi razvitiya mobilizatsionnoi ekonomiki Rossii v yanvare — sentyabre 2022 g.: bor’ba za gosudarstvennyi suverenitet [Results of the Development of the Mobilization Economy of Russia in January — September 2022: the Struggle for State Sovereignty].

Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 30–35, DOI: 10.33917/es-6.186.2022.30-35.

6. Informatsiya ob uchastii Prezidenta RF v rabote ezhegodnogo s”ezda Rossiiskogo soyuza promyshlennikov i predprinimatelei (RSPP) 16 marta 2023 g. [Information on Participation of the President of the Russian Federation in the Annual Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) on March 16, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70688.

Results of the Development of the Mobilization Economy of Russia in January — September 2022: the Struggle for State Sovereignty

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.30-35

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for nine months of 2020 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — sentyabre 2022 goda [Socio-economic Situation in Russia in January — September 2022]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-09-2022.pdf.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Yanvar’ — mai 2022 goda: Rossiya v usloviyakh tormozheniya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [2022, January — May: Russia in the Context of Slowing Down Socio-economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 4, pp. 90–95, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.90-95.

3. Informatsiya o soveshchanii Prezidenta RF s chlenami Pravitel’stva RF 16 noyabrya 2022 g. v rezhime videokonferentsii [Information on the Meeting of the President of the Russian Federation with Members of the RF Government on November 16, 2022 Via Videoconference]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69847.

4. Prognoz sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2023 god i na planovyi period 2024 i 2025 godov [Forecast of the Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the Scheduled Period of 2024 and 2025]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, 2022, 28 sentyabrya, available at: https://economy.gov.ru/material/file/ea2fd3ce38f2e28d51c312acf2be0917/prognoz_socialno_ekonom_razvitiya_rf_2023-2025.pdf.

5. Informatsiya o Plenarnom zasedanii Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma s uchastiem Prezidenta RF 17 iyunya 2022 g. [Information on the Plenary Meeting of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with Participation of the President of the Russian Federation on June 17, 2022]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669.

Anti-Russian sanctions as a factor affecting the socio-economic situation of the country

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.105.2022.33-38

This article discusses anti-Russian sanctions imposed from 2014 to the present. Based on open data and Rosstat statistics, the dynamics of inflation and real incomes of the population are analyzed. Conclusions are drawn about the futility of anti-Russian sanctions, and basically not achieving the goals set by the initiators.

References:

1. Sukharev O.S. Economic attack on Russia and the policy of counteraction // Economic strategies. 2022;2:40-47.

2. The policy of sanctions: goals, strategies, tools: a reader. 2nd edition, revised and enlarged / [comp. I.N. Timofeev, V.A. Morozov, Yu.S. Timofeev]; Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). Moscow: NP RIAC, 2020. 452 p.

3. Glazyev S.Yu. About Ukraine, measures to respond to sanctions and the formation of an effective system for managing the Russian economy. URL: https://glazev.ru/articles/165-interv-ju/100822-ob-ukraine-merakh-reagirovanija-na-sanktsii-i-formirovanii-jeffektivnoy-sistemy-upravlenija-rossiyskoy-jekonomikoy

4. Putin signed a decree on the response to sanctions. URL: https://www.rbc.ru/politics/28/02/2022/621cecc89a79478c36273570

5. For us and for you: what are the consequences for the EU because of the sanctions against Russia. URL: https://iz.ru/1299635/roza-almakunova/i-nam-i-vam-kakie-posledstviia-zhdut-es-iz-za-sanktcii-protiv-rossii

6. Russia: what is the real impact of sanctions on the economy? URL: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/28/10/2019/5db1a76a9a794744a5d6e13a

2022, January — May: Russia in the Context of Slowing Down Socio-economic Development

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.90-95

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for five months of 2022 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

Источники:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — mae 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-May 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-05-2022.pdf.

2. Osnovnye parametry stsenarnykh uslovii prognoza sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2023 god i na planovyi period 2024 i 2025 godov [Main Parameters of the Scenario Conditions for Forecasting Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the Planned Period of 2024 and 2025]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, available at: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/file/c56d9cd0365715292055fe5930854d59/scenarnye_usloviya_2023.pdf.

3. Informatsiya o Plenarnom zasedanii Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma s uchastiem Prezidenta RF 17 iyunya 2022 g. [Information on the Plenary Meeting of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with Participation of the President of the Russian Federation on June 17, 2022]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669.

4. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. 2021: stagflyatsiya ili tekhnologicheskii suverenitet — inogo ne dano! [2021: Stagflation or Technological Sovereignty — No Other Choice!]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 2, pp. 86–91, DOI: 10.33917/es-2.182.2022.86-91.

Monetary policy in Russia: negative cumulative effect in the framework of the neoclassical model and its overcoming

DOI: 10.33917/mic-2.103.2022.5-38

Monetary policy is the most important instrument of economic growth policy, but the influence of any instrument may weaken or strengthen over time. We will designate this state as the cumulative effect of monetary policy. The purpose of the study is to determine the cumulative effect of monetary policy, with the identification of the effectiveness of its measures in ensuring the growth of the Russian economy. The methodology of the study consists of monetary theory, structural analysis of the money supply, the principle of «goals-tools» of economic policy and correlation and regression analysis, which allow to identify the presence of the cumulative effect of monetary policy, to determine its impact on relevant macroeconomic goals: GDP growth and inflation.

The result of the study is the application of the introduced indicators of the sensitivity of macro-policy goals to monetary policy instruments, representing a picture of the weakening of the influence of monetary policy on the growth of the Russian economy. The increasing monetization was accompanied, in particular, by a decrease in the growth rate of the Russian economy, the unfolding of a recession, the consequences of which affect the dynamics of economic development, while maintaining a tight monetary policy option – with an increase in the key interest rate. The structural analysis of the money supply for the M2 aggregate made it possible to identify those components that, with an increase, slow down growth and reduce inflation, as well as to determine the closeness of the relationship of the interest rate with the changing components of the money supply. The assessment of the cumulative effect of monetary policy on two goals of macroeconomic development – growth and inflation, and two monetary policy instruments – the M2 money supply and the key interest rate, confirmed the existence of a negative cumulative effect of the policy for the growth goal and a positive cumulative effect on the inflation rate. For two purposes at once, the positive cumulative effect of monetary policy is confirmed only for the period 2016-2018 in the interval 2001-2020. Thus, monetary policy, firstly, ensured the containment of inflation out of connection with growth, and secondly, provided different cumulative effects for different purposes – due to the different sensitivity of the target to the instruments.

The prospect of the study is seen in the creation of some kind of aggregated indicator that would allow taking into account the overall impact on the dynamics of the entire set of monetary policy measures, and not separately by goals and instruments, as presented in this study.

References:

 

1.       Glazyev S.Yu. A leap into the future. Russia in new technological and world economic structures. Moscow: Knizhny Mir, 2018. 768 p. (In Russ.).

2.      Glazyev S.Yu. Lessons of the next Russian revolution: the collapse of a liberal utopia and a chance for an «economic miracle». Moscow: Publishing House «Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta», 2011. 576 p. (In Russ.).

Features of financial accounting during the decommissioning of oil fields in accordance with IFRS

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.89.2019.51-57

The article analyzes the Russian system of accounting for the decommissioning of oil fields, its compliance with IFRS standards, defines the features of financial accounting for decommissioning, proposes approaches to measuring the reserves for decommissioning of oil fields and criteria for their evaluation, provides an example of calculating the reserves for decommissioning.

Eurozone on the Verge of Widespread Negative Interest Rates

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.50-54

The global economy, including the eurozone, experienced a shock in 2008. As one of the consequences, central banks of the largest economies in the world, in order to support economic activity, reduced interest rates on loans. Although 11 years have passed, in the eurozone lending rates still remain extremely low. This indicates that the monetary union has not yet recovered from the post-crisis state. In fact, more and more probable is becoming a recently inconceivable scenario that the eurozone for a long time will get into the era of negative interest rates.