The article examines the macroeconomic results of 2017 and provides an analysis of problems related to overcoming risks and threats that hamper the acceleration of the development of various spheres of the economy. Comparisons are given of trends by the development of the Russian and world economies on the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic indicators. The forecasts of macroeconomic indicators for 2018–2019 are given.
In this article long-term trends of the energy market are viewed not from the point of view of supply and demand balance, as it is usually done, but exclusively analyzing quotations. Particular attention is paid to coal prices, which have been traced since 1834. The main conclusion is that there isn’t any shortage of raw materials on the planet, and the tendency of refusing mineral fuel in favor of renewable sources, if it is manifested in quotations — it will happen only in several decades. Much more important for price dynamics are big cycles of the business situation, on the basis of which a long-term forecast is made.
One can long list problems faced by our economy after the economic reforms onset. But the most serious of them are: extremely low rates of economic growth and resource degradation of the economy, threatening the very existence of our country. Scientists, experts and politicians bring a lot of reasons of this and offer a variety of different methods and ways to remedy the situation. But it is extremely important to determine the main cause underlying these problems, because without its elimination it is impossible in principle to resolve them and all the measures taken will be ineffective or useless. That is, we are talking about the “key link”, pulling which one can pull out the whole chain of economic problems of our country. Publications and various speeches most often cite the bad investment climate or the practical unavailability of long-term and cheap loans as the main reason. But is it really so?
The article dwells on inflation processes in Russia. The main factors, which have significantly affected it, are identified and analyzed. The factors themselves are considered from monetary and non-monetary points of view. Particular attention is paid to non-monetary factors of inflation being its main source.
The lion’s share of credits allocated by banks to the population, is aimed at purchasing imported products and at stimulating economic growth of strategic competitors.
The crisis has shown that government together with the central bank can secure financial market stabilization by allocating additional funds to credit institutions for increasing risk reserves and mitigating effects of “toxic” assets accumulation.
In terms of consumption Russia was seeking to “catch up and surpass„ the West, but was doing so in a unique style of glare and poverty “all in one„.
It’s possible to say surely that for many centuries two models of relationship in society co-exist — control (diktat!) or partnership, and predominance of one or another component determines the type of corresponding public formation.