Modeling the Consequences of a Nuclear Strike

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.6-16

The risks of increasing international tension have sharply exacerbated the possibility of a nuclear conflict. The main geopolitical players in the international arena have actually recognized the possibility and even expediency of using nuclear weapons. In this context, the need to simulate the consequences of a nuclear strike in order to prepare for emergencies of a critical nature has become extremely urgent. The present article analyzes foreign experience of using digital simulators to this end. The authors outline Russian views on applying agent-based simulation methods for this purpose in the analysis of non-military (civilian) aspects of a nuclear blow effects.

Источники:

 

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About the possibility of using a scenario approach in forecasting and budgeting in the practice of corporate governance of PJSC Aeroflot

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.102.2022.83-90

The article discusses the possibilities of using a scenario approach in forecasting and budgeting in the practice of corporate governance of PJSC Aeroflot. According to the methodology of the National Corporate Governance Rating in 2018, Aeroflot PJSC has a rating of 7++, which indicates compliance with Russian legislation, taking into account the interests of all interested parties (shareholders, the state, employees, consumers of services). Currently, it is established that in 2020-2021. This aspect of corporate governance in PJSC Aeroflot is not fully implemented and needs to be improved. It can be assumed that precisely because of this, the risk management system of PJSC Aeroflot could not cope with the development of anti-crisis measures in a timely manner. The authors recommend considering pessimistic and optimistic scenarios in detail when drawing up budgets, planning a budget system for each of them, developing measures to reduce risks, and responding quickly to emerging threats. It has been established that the use of a scenario approach in budgeting and corporate governance practices will allow PJSC Aeroflot to consider all possible situations, including unlikely ones, to inform representatives of the Board of Directors about all possible risks in a timely manner, and to develop measures to minimize risk.

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Forecasting the performance of credit institutions based on simulation modeling

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.98.2021.5-14

The purpose of this work is to prepare proposals for the use of simulation methods for solving the problems of planning and forecasting the financial results of credit institutions. The article addresses the following issues: 1) an analysis of the activities of credit institutions of the Russian Federation was carried out, based on the results of which “pain points” were identified – unresolved problems, including the management of overdue loan debt; 2) the feasibility of using simulation modeling methods for the development of scenarios for the development of commercial banks was justified; 3) an approach based on simulation modeling was proposed to determine the impact of the amount of overdue debt on the indicators and economic standards of activity.

Scenarios for the Development of World Nuclear Power in the Context of Limited Fossil Resources

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.24-31

Forecasts of the scenarios for the development of the world nuclear power industry are given, taking into account the limited resources of natural uranium and the concept of sustainable development. On the basis of a new model of dynamic forecasting of the depletion of fossil resources, possible restrictions on the development of hydrocarbon and nuclear energy at thermal reactors are considered. It is shown that the existing nuclear power based on thermal reactors does not have a long-term perspective (more than 100 years) for a number of reasons. The most promising development in order to maintain and, moreover, increase the contribution of nuclear power plants to electricity generation, is the two-component nuclear power system with a combined uranium-plutonium nuclear fuel cycle. However, the widespread introduction of fast-neutron reactors is possible in the second half of this century. For the next few decades, the tasks of economic substantiation of the diversification of business product lines in the field of a closed nuclear fuel cycle for scenarios of the development of nuclear power on thermal reactors in conditions of limited traditional reserves of natural uranium are urgent

Security Strategy for the Russian Financial and Economic System: Problems and the Ways of Solution

DOI: 10.33917/es-7.165.2019.134-141

The article presents the scientific approach to analysis of problem issues in the security sphere of the Russian financial and economic system. It has been reviewed the some important aspects of statistics, analysis of nonlinear processes, the construction of information and mathematical models of law enforcement unit practice, forecasting and strategic decisions development. Shows the ways to improve efficiency of security strategy for the Russian financial and economic system control.

“Long Waves” in the Economy and the RF Currency Market

#7. Connected Space
“Long Waves” in the Economy and the RF Currency Market

The article dwells on actual problems — increase in the volatility of the ruble exchange rate and its depreciation in 2018. At the same time, it is assumed that dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in general reflects the underlying economic processes (including abroad). Before the economic crisis that began in 2008, the ruble exchange rate for many years was mainly strengthening, and its volatility was relatively low. The situation has changed because the economies of a number of countries (in particular, Russia) have entered into a long, difficult period. So, for about a decade, the Russian economy has been showing slow growth. At the same time, the ruble exchange rate tends to depreciate. This allows the authors to assume that dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, which passed from a long upward to a downward stage about ten years ago, may be associated with a similar transition of the economy of Russia and some other countries to a downward stage (in N.D. Kondratieff terminology). The article analyzes a number of approaches to the problems of “long waves” in the economy and a conclusion is drawn up on the necessity to develop the RF monetary strategy (taking into account long-term macroeconomic processes).

Early Identification of Structural Shifts

#8. New Year’s Forces
Early Identification of Structural Shifts

The article is investigating structural changes in the economy before these shifts are reflected in well-known statistical indicators. It dwells on the changes in the economy that occurred in 2011–2015 based on the data from relatively big companies in Russia from SPARK group. The method proposed by the authors shows the presence of structural shifts in the period under study. The article also discusses possible consequences of structural shifts for development of regional economy and the budget system of Russia.

Forming a New Model of Monetary Policy while Managing the National Foreign Exchange Reserves of Russia

#3. Immortal Power
Forming a New Model of Monetary Policy while Managing the National Foreign Exchange Reserves of Russia

Research is focused on the problems of forming a qualitatively new model for monitoring, planning and coordination of monetary-financial and commodity policy in management of Russia’s national foreign exchange reserves (including regulation of bimetallic matrixes fluctuation dynamics of gold and silver spreads) with the agreed course of a particular currency, on terms and conditions (zones and so on) of circulation in Russia and the EAEU as a combinatorially expandable space. Identifying overt and latent characteristics of typical or atypical fluctuations of Russian monetary-financial markets dynamics is considered as the basis for preparation and execution of subsequent effective operational stabilization measures by subdivisions of corresponding Russian (in the long term — Eurasian-allied) federal agencies, commercial banks and others. It is expected to expand and deepen network situational analysis space in the financial sector to develop the system protective measures against speculative attacks, as well as against sanctions or other discriminatory actions of foreign structures.

The Struggle Against Terrorism: Control Problems Solution Under Critical Instability Conditions

#9. Preserving humanness
The Struggle Against Terrorism: Control Problems Solution Under Critical Instability Conditions

A series of terrorist attacks in Paris, plane crashes, explosions in different cities around the world, a terrorist war against the legitimate government in Syria, the terror in Russia’s North Caucasus — all these phenomena called forth the problem of ongoing processes of the terrorist component expansion in the global geo-strategic players’ activities like regularity pattern manifesting the systemic crisis of the western world order model. Geostrategic nature of terrorist operations is an integral part of the globalized competition in contemporary geo-economic and geopolitical environment. It is necessary to comprehend the new macro-terroristic reality and to develop measures to confront qualitatively new risks and threats to our country’s security and whole world’s.

Crowdsourcing as a Model of Knowledge Management: Socio-Psychological Characteristics and Limitations

#6-7. 100 Years of War: The Point of Beginning
Crowdsourcing as a Model of Knowledge Management: Socio-Psychological Characteristics and Limitations

The paper analyzes the crowdsourcing possibilities in predicting the future and developing solutions. The author distinguishes types of crowdsourcing, discusses its psychological characteristics in comparison with the other methods of knowledge management. He discusses cognitive and motivational mechanisms limiting the effectiveness of crowdsourcing as a form of collective intelligence.