Japan 2040: Dialectics of Transhumanism and Society of the Future

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.78-93

Analysis of the essence, content and forms of the scenario state of Japan in 2040, reflected in the 11th Scientific and Technical Forecast of NISTEP in 2019, revealed a number of conceptual dialectical contradictions. They narrow down to the question of admissibility and expediency of changing a man’s nature in order to ensure his prosperous, safe, meaningful and happy existence. The author proposes for discussion a conclusion on inevitability of the transhumanization of a mankind on the scale of a single country (Japan) and the whole world, given the nature of the great challenges facing it. The possibility of keeping the historical development in a conditionally humanistic direction is noted, given the emphasis of social reforms in Japan, reflected in the 6th Basic Plan for scientific, technical and innovative development of the country, on building a society for the fullest realization and use of human intellectual potential.


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Organizing Strategic Management of Scientific and Technological Development

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.72-77

In the context of growing technological gap between the Russian Federation and developed countries, restrictions on developing scientific research and innovation due to narrowing scientific cooperation opportunities, reduced access to world scientifictechnical achievements and scientific equipment, as well as low demand from public and business sectors of the economy for scientific, scientific-technical and innovative products, the role of strategic management in the sphere of scientific-technological development, aimed at increasing the role of science in reproductive processes, ensuring the optimal choice of priority areas in science, technology and engineering, concentration of existing scientific, technical and innovative potential for their implementation in a short term, is significantly increasing. The present article analyzes the current system of state strategic management of scientific-technological development, gives recommendations for its improvement with a focus on the final result of scientific, scientific-technical and innovative activities by ensuring the integrity and continuity of innovative processes.


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Innovative Development of the Economy]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2023, vol. 93, no 3, pp. 237–245.

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8. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii. 2023 god [Socio-economic Situation in Russia. 2023]. Moscow, Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, 2023, no 5, 287 p.

9. Todosiichuk A.V. Upravlenie naukoi v nestatsionarnoi ekonomike [Management of Science in a Non-stationary Economy]. Naukovedcheskie issledovaniya, 2022, no 3, pp. 71–85.

Strategic Prospects of the Demographic Component of Russia’s National Strength

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.38-53

Demographic situation largely determines the strategic prospects of our country in the context of fierce multifactorial competition between various countries of the world and their bilateral and multilateral alliances. The ar ticle examines dynamics of the Russian population trends, individual causes of male excess mor tality, the main factors for increasing the birth rate and also provides a quantitative assessment of the ef fectiveness of some of the above. To assess the consequences an agent-based demographic model of Russia was used and a sof tware package, developed jointly with researchers from China, was applied to make a long-term forecast of our country’s population.


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2. Asel’ Gereikhanova. Vladimir Putin poruchil v 2023 godu dobit’sya rosta zarplat, rozhdaemosti i prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni [Vladimir Putin Instructed to Achieve an Increase in Wages, birth Rates and Life Expectancy in 2023]. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 2023, 29 yanvarya, available at: https://rg.ru/2023/01/29/zadachidlia-razvitiia.html

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Evaluation and Forecast]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 38–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

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9. Demografiya: Prognoz [Demographics: Forecast], available at: https://www.agents.media/demografia-prognoz

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sistemy Rossii — platforma dlya eksperimentov v sfere upravleniya demograficheskimi protsessami [The Digital Twin (Artificial Society) of the Socio-Economic System of Russia is a Platform for Experiments in the Field of Managing Demographic Processes]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no

2(182), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19.

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Modeling the Consequences of a Nuclear Strike

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.6-16

The risks of increasing international tension have sharply exacerbated the possibility of a nuclear conflict. The main geopolitical players in the international arena have actually recognized the possibility and even expediency of using nuclear weapons. In this context, the need to simulate the consequences of a nuclear strike in order to prepare for emergencies of a critical nature has become extremely urgent. The present article analyzes foreign experience of using digital simulators to this end. The authors outline Russian views on applying agent-based simulation methods for this purpose in the analysis of non-military (civilian) aspects of a nuclear blow effects.



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2. Ageev A.I., Bochkarev O.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Setetsentricheskaya sistema povyshennoi zhivuchesti upravleniya energetikoi Rossii v slozhnoprognoziruemykh kriticheskikh usloviyakh [Net-Centric System of Elevated Survivability of Energy Management in Russia Under Difficult-to-predict Critical Conditions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, vol. 23, no 3 (177), pp. 6–17, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.6-17.

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About the possibility of using a scenario approach in forecasting and budgeting in the practice of corporate governance of PJSC Aeroflot

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.102.2022.83-90

The article discusses the possibilities of using a scenario approach in forecasting and budgeting in the practice of corporate governance of PJSC Aeroflot. According to the methodology of the National Corporate Governance Rating in 2018, Aeroflot PJSC has a rating of 7++, which indicates compliance with Russian legislation, taking into account the interests of all interested parties (shareholders, the state, employees, consumers of services). Currently, it is established that in 2020-2021. This aspect of corporate governance in PJSC Aeroflot is not fully implemented and needs to be improved. It can be assumed that precisely because of this, the risk management system of PJSC Aeroflot could not cope with the development of anti-crisis measures in a timely manner. The authors recommend considering pessimistic and optimistic scenarios in detail when drawing up budgets, planning a budget system for each of them, developing measures to reduce risks, and responding quickly to emerging threats. It has been established that the use of a scenario approach in budgeting and corporate governance practices will allow PJSC Aeroflot to consider all possible situations, including unlikely ones, to inform representatives of the Board of Directors about all possible risks in a timely manner, and to develop measures to minimize risk.


1. Alenina E.E., Zyulina V.V., Redin D.V. Priority directions of formation of organizational structures of innovative development of high-tech industries. In the collection: Innovations in business creation and management. Materials of the VIII International Scientific Conference of teachers, staff and Graduate students. 2016. pp. 3-8. (In Russ.).

2. Alenina E.E., Zyulina V.V. Sectoral problems of management of the development of modern Russian engineering. In the collection: Materials of the Scientific and practical conference with international participation «Management in the field of science, education and technological development». 2016. pp. 134-140. (In Russ.).

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6. Gorin D.S. Assessment of the industry significance of machine-building enterprises based on the analysis of fixed assets //Economics and entrepreneurship. 2013;12-4(41):319-322. (In Russ.).

7. Gorin D.S. Organizational and methodological aspects of crisis management at machine-building enterprises //Economics and entrepreneurship. 2012;1(24):282-285. (In Russ.).

Forecasting the performance of credit institutions based on simulation modeling

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.98.2021.5-14

The purpose of this work is to prepare proposals for the use of simulation methods for solving the problems of planning and forecasting the financial results of credit institutions. The article addresses the following issues: 1) an analysis of the activities of credit institutions of the Russian Federation was carried out, based on the results of which “pain points” were identified – unresolved problems, including the management of overdue loan debt; 2) the feasibility of using simulation modeling methods for the development of scenarios for the development of commercial banks was justified; 3) an approach based on simulation modeling was proposed to determine the impact of the amount of overdue debt on the indicators and economic standards of activity.

Scenarios for the Development of World Nuclear Power in the Context of Limited Fossil Resources

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.24-31

Forecasts of the scenarios for the development of the world nuclear power industry are given, taking into account the limited resources of natural uranium and the concept of sustainable development. On the basis of a new model of dynamic forecasting of the depletion of fossil resources, possible restrictions on the development of hydrocarbon and nuclear energy at thermal reactors are considered. It is shown that the existing nuclear power based on thermal reactors does not have a long-term perspective (more than 100 years) for a number of reasons. The most promising development in order to maintain and, moreover, increase the contribution of nuclear power plants to electricity generation, is the two-component nuclear power system with a combined uranium-plutonium nuclear fuel cycle. However, the widespread introduction of fast-neutron reactors is possible in the second half of this century. For the next few decades, the tasks of economic substantiation of the diversification of business product lines in the field of a closed nuclear fuel cycle for scenarios of the development of nuclear power on thermal reactors in conditions of limited traditional reserves of natural uranium are urgent

Security Strategy for the Russian Financial and Economic System: Problems and the Ways of Solution

DOI: 10.33917/es-7.165.2019.134-141

The article presents the scientific approach to analysis of problem issues in the security sphere of the Russian financial and economic system. It has been reviewed the some important aspects of statistics, analysis of nonlinear processes, the construction of information and mathematical models of law enforcement unit practice, forecasting and strategic decisions development. Shows the ways to improve efficiency of security strategy for the Russian financial and economic system control.

“Long Waves” in the Economy and the RF Currency Market

#7. Connected Space
“Long Waves” in the Economy and the RF Currency Market

The article dwells on actual problems — increase in the volatility of the ruble exchange rate and its depreciation in 2018. At the same time, it is assumed that dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in general reflects the underlying economic processes (including abroad). Before the economic crisis that began in 2008, the ruble exchange rate for many years was mainly strengthening, and its volatility was relatively low. The situation has changed because the economies of a number of countries (in particular, Russia) have entered into a long, difficult period. So, for about a decade, the Russian economy has been showing slow growth. At the same time, the ruble exchange rate tends to depreciate. This allows the authors to assume that dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, which passed from a long upward to a downward stage about ten years ago, may be associated with a similar transition of the economy of Russia and some other countries to a downward stage (in N.D. Kondratieff terminology). The article analyzes a number of approaches to the problems of “long waves” in the economy and a conclusion is drawn up on the necessity to develop the RF monetary strategy (taking into account long-term macroeconomic processes).

Early Identification of Structural Shifts

#8. New Year’s Forces
Early Identification of Structural Shifts

The article is investigating structural changes in the economy before these shifts are reflected in well-known statistical indicators. It dwells on the changes in the economy that occurred in 2011–2015 based on the data from relatively big companies in Russia from SPARK group. The method proposed by the authors shows the presence of structural shifts in the period under study. The article also discusses possible consequences of structural shifts for development of regional economy and the budget system of Russia.