The authors have studied the possibility of taking into account the human rationality factor in the analysis of global problems of demography and energy. For this purpose, analogues of chemical kinetics and the idea of human communities as an open thermodynamic system were applied. The demography of sapientation was divided into two conventional energy zones — northern and southern, which differ in climatic and geophysical conditions. The sapientation process was formalized by correlating the number of creative and educated people with the amount of external energy they convert into new valuable information. The sapientation kinetics was modeled completing the formalism of the act of a person’s birth with a stage of his education requiring the involvement of at least one teacher from among educated people. The second-order kinetic equation, describing the growth of an equal population of men and women of reproductive age, was transformed into an equation of the third and higher orders. The stationary solution of these equations determines the optimal demography for sustainable noospheric development of the population in accordance with its education index. Real and durable solutions to the demographic and energy problems are proposed.
The article examines the macroeconomic results of 2017 and provides an analysis of problems related to overcoming risks and threats that hamper the acceleration of the development of various spheres of the economy. Comparisons are given of trends by the development of the Russian and world economies on the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic indicators. The forecasts of macroeconomic indicators for 2018–2019 are given.
In 2009, the “Economic Strategies” published an article on the crises in Russia . Then there were five crises, including the 2008 crisis. The crisis that began in 2014, in our opinion, is the sixth. Exactly this crisis will be discussed in the present article. We shall consider the socio-economic situation in Russia in 2015. And the main emphasis will be made on the state and prospects of the real sector of the domestic economy. The real sector, according to Adam Smith , means extraction of raw materials, production of all types of goods, energy resources, housing and communal services and agriculture. Rendering various services, including financial services, is not considered to be the real sector. The article consists of three parts. The first part is dedicated to external economic and political situation around the Russian Federation. The second part will consider the main processes that took place in the real sector. In the third part, we’ll answer the question of the possible situation evolution in 2016–2017.
The paper presents an original interpretation of both economy at large and current economic reality, fraud with dramatic changes which may entail the transformation of economy into post-economy or technomy. The author views the economy as a value-driven phenomenon of active consciousness within which it is implemented accepting specific digital (monetary) expression. The author argues that at the basis of any economic organization lies the notion of ‘creating chaos’ which, thanks to consciousness as synergy attractor, constantly generates a certain economic order, chaosmos, overcoming initial chaos but not attaining sustainable order of cosmic character. The economy is chronically changeable either towards growth and development or towards decline and stagnation. Here the negentropy is combined with entropy, thus reflecting the apocalyptic nature of economy, where crisis is a natural anomaly. Overall economic self-organization, or self-governing, is necessarily coupled with assertive selective organization, or management (various forms of dirigizm). In general, the organization of economy is not only diversified, but also is much more large-scale than economy itself; it is bound to be supported by an external organization, mainly not economic one but institutional, legal, governmental, political, etc. Managerial ecology of economy implies taking into consideration the importance of economic self-governance through dirigizm; managing the economy is only possible on the basis of self-governnance combined with economic freedom. Massive introduction of computing and analytical devices in economic processes creates an opportunity not only for greater administrative efficiency in the economy but also for the replacement of economic organization proper (homo-socio-value type) with non-economic technotronic organization, and of the economy with technomy. Hence, there exist a probability of transgressive revolution in the economy and then in the society. Presently, world economy, undergoing overall qualitative and organizational crisis, is on the brink of transition from uni-centered global type to the poly-centered integrated one, which, in turn, will put an end to the dominance of the US dollar, the Wall Street, the USA and the West.
Economic science, which incorporates cognitive illusions of XIX-XX centuries, cannot give an adequate idea of the current economic reality and requires decisive revision. Economy in reality is different, perceived and described not so scientifically, mathematically, based on models, that is, physically, but post-scientifically, over the limits, which is the same — metaphysically.
National Security Concept of the Russian Federation cannot be considered as stiffened untouchable dogma. The concept’s sense and effectiveness are defined by its adequacy to modern realities, and they are subject to change. Therefore, the concept’s content should combine, on the one hand — firmness, stability of its fundamental principles and on the other — a timely response to emerging objective realities that require updating of various conceptual provisions. The current document in force has been already subjected to editing in 2000. However, a lot has changed since then, so we need a new edition, but not only introduction to the concept of a number of new provisions is required, but also the conceptual revision, that will cause introduction of fundamental changes in a number of other documents determining the state policy in different spheres of society. The article discusses some conceptual issues.
The article discusses the main results of 2013. It analyzes trends and forecasts of macroeconomic indicators in the medium term until 2015. The paper studies the reasons of existing situation and identifies factors contributing to the economic growth. Dynamics of the Russian economy and global economic trends are compared.
Institute for Economic Strategies in the project “Strategic Matrix of Russia” again determines the most important strategic trends of the past 2013 by nine strategic matrix factors: governance, territory, natural assets, population, economy, culture and religion, science and education, armed forces, geopolitical environment.
The global economy is bringing more and more positive news. Vivid evidence of the general optimistic mood — stock indices.