The Dollar Collapse: Projecting Russia’s Actions in the Face of Global Economic Collapse

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.56-69

The world has been scared by the collapse of the dollar many times. So far, fears of a global economic collapse, associated with the fate of the dollar, have been greatly exaggerated. However, there are no significant guarantees that this will not happen under certain conditions. Variants of the Atlantic-planned collapse of the dollar with its replacement by a synthetic financial instrument o r digital currency, somehow similar to bitcoin, are possible. COVID-19 has further revealed this problem. Russia needs to abandon its illusions and to be ready to ensure the economic stability of political regime in a special period as manifestation of the world monetary and economic war of all against all at a certain stage of the catastrophe, while waiting for the main actors to agree on joint actions. At the same time, among our geopolitical competing partners, there are a lot of those who want by all means to solve their economic and other problems at the expense of Russia. Therefore,  macroeconomic measures that Russia will have to take in case of a global dollar collapse are very likely to be more severe than the scenario that the authors formulated in this article.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Coronavirus superstrategy: mirovaya proektsiya finansovoi modeli catastrophe just-in-time dlya vykhoda iz krizisa na novuyu geoekonomicheskuyu normal’nost’ [Coronavirus Superstrategy: Global Projection of the “Just-in-time Catastrophe’s” Financial Model for Overcoming the Crisis and Entering into a New Geo-Economic Normality]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 4, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.6-19.

3. Na poroge monetarnoi kul’minatsii [On the Brink of a Monetary Climax]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, August, 25, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/699002.html.

4. Fiskal’nyi ad [Fiscal Hell]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, April, 21, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/698446.html.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal – 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [“New Deal” – 2008. Lost Followers of Franklin Roosevelt]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, no 2, pp. 30–37

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Formirovanie novoi modeli valyutno-finansovoi politiki pri upravlenii natsional’nymi zolotovalyutnymi rezervami Rossii [Forming a New Model of Monetary Policy while Managing the National Foreign Exchange Reserves of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2016,

no 3, no 8–15.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Institutsional’nye mekhanizmy snizheniya mul’tifaktornykh riskov dlya valyutno-finansovoi sistemy Rossii i EAES v usloviyakh nelineinoi ekonomicheskoi dinamiki [Institutional Mechanisms for Reducing Multifactor Risks for Monetary-financial System of Russia and the EAEU in the Context of Nonlinear Economic Dynamics]. Monografiya. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, 2017.

On the Formation of Common Markets for Oil and Petroleum Products of the Eurasian Economic Union

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.58-71

This article is devoted to the activities on the formation of common markets for oil and petroleum products of the Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time, these common markets are considered by the author as a factor in ensuring the interests of the national economies of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, contributing to increasing the level of economic integration of the member states. It is noted that relations currently in the oil sector within the Union are carried out on a bilateral basis within the framework of intergovernmental agreements. Certain issues of ensuring energy security are considered, it is noted that the key goal of ensuring the energy security of the Union should be, first of all, maintaining the energy resource base of each Member State and the Union as a whole.

Источники:

1. Dogovor o Evraziiskom ekonomicheskom soyuze ot 29 maya 2014 g. [Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of May 29, 2014]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii, available at: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/file/2bbbbf9ae33443d533d855bf2225707e/Dogovor_ees.pdf.

2. Kontseptsiya formirovaniya obshchikh rynkov nefti i nefteproduktov Soyuza, utverzhdennaya Resheniem Vysshego Evraziiskogo ekonomicheskogo soveta ot 31 maya 2016 g. N 8 [The Concept of Forming Common Markets for Oil and Oil Products of the Union, Approved by Decision of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council Dated May 31, 2016 No. 8]. Kodeks, available at: https://docs.cntd.ru/document/456006395.

3. Programma formirovaniya obshchikh rynkov nefti I nefteproduktov Soyuza, utverzhdennaya Resheniem Vysshego Evraziiskogo ekonomicheskogo soveta ot 6 dekabrya 2018 g. N 23 [The Program for Forming Common Markets for Oil and Oil Products of the Union, Approved by Decision of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council Dated December 6, 2018 No. 23]. Kodeks, available at: https://docs.cntd.ru/document/551866200.

4. Zakrevskii V.A. Obshchii rynok nefti EAES kak universal’nyi integrator [The EAEU Common Oil Market as a Universal Integrator]. NEFT’ i kapital. Analiticheskii zhurnal, 2021, no 9, September, pp. 36–40.

5. Glikman O.V., Nazarova A.U. Mezhdunarodno-pravovye osnovy energeticheskogo sotrudnichestva gosudarstv — chlenov Evraziiskogo ekonomicheskogo soyuza [International Legal Framework for Energy Cooperation Between the Member States of the Eurasian Economic Union]. Pravo i upravlenie. XXI vek, 2020, no 1, pp. 28–35.

6. Evraziiskii ekonomicheskii soyuz: tsifry i fakty. 2020. Energetika i infrastruktura [Eurasian Economic Union: Figures and Facts. 2020. Energy and Infrastructure]. Evraziiskaya ekonomicheskaya komissiya, 2020, pp. 23–24, available at: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/Documents/3264_ЕЭК_ЦИФ%20-%202020_энергетикаИинфраструктура.pdf.

7. Romanova V.V. Problemy mezhdunarodno-pravovoi unifikatsii v sfere energetiki i garmonizatsii zakonodatel’stva gosudarstv — uchastnikov mezhdunarodnykh energeticheskikh rynkov na primere evraziiskoi ekonomicheskoi integratsii [Problems of International Legal Unification in the Field of Energy and Harmonization of the Legislation of States Participating in International Energy Markets on the Example of Eurasian Economic Integration]. Pravovoi energeticheskii forum, 2015, no 3, pp. 12–18.

Sustainability Metrics of the EAEU Economic Development: Problem of the “Core” of the Indicators and Thresholds System

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.179.2021.54-65

In the subject area of macroeconomic indicators there is currently not only an active search for new solutions, but also their almost continuous implementation in the practice of macroeconomic regulation. Multiple crisis processes in the world economy and politics, unfolding technological transformation, sharp manifestation of medical and biological threats have created additional impulses for forming and applying new models for assessing macroeconomic realities and a set of sustainable development problems. In the practice of world integration associations and the EAEU in particular, considerable experience has been accumulated in applying the systems of macroeconomic indicators with threshold values and procedures for responding to their violations. Critical analysis of the current system of macroeconomic indicators in the EAEU made it possible to substantiate a new vision of both the composition of indicators of sustainable economic development of the EAEU member states and assessment criteria as well as threshold values.

Digital concept for identifying hidden control centers as part of a complex multi-currency financial systems with a lot of latent connections between elements

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.93.2020.5-11

The article discusses the problems of digital monitoring of international settlements with the cooperated structure of the EAEU financial and stock markets as multi-agent systems. The introduction of a digital platform with analytical services for the identification of cluster monetary and financial interpretations of the observed operations and the identification of real beneficiaries (hidden control centers) of operating schemes and transaction chains of specific financial operators is justified. It is proposed to build a computationally observable object-resource base of electronic transactions that allows you to track the movement [including budget] of each ruble or other non-cash currency through any number of accounts that serve as the basis for establishing all participants in the financial chain.

Formation of a digital increase model within the EAEU transparency and success of ensuring control over the movement of assets between participants in commodity, financial and property transactions

DOI: 10.33917/mic-2.91.2020.5-12

The article discusses the problems of creating a digital model for increasing transparency and the success of ensuring control over the movement of assets between participants in commodity, financial and property transactions within the framework of the EAEU financial system. It is proposed to increase the observability of any segments of the financial system, which can be digitally structured by electronic digital identification of each currency in the monitoring spaces of digital financial assets. The results of the analysis can be used to optimize the operational dynamics of electronic transactions of explicit alliances and informal cartels of financial agents in the observed space of digital formats of financial communications, taking into account the movement of funds in various forms and denominated in different currencies.

Five Years of Eurasian Integration: Statistical Analysis of Key Economic Results

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.166.2019.48-57

Over 5 years after the signing of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union, the experience of the integration process has been accumulated, its pros and cons, potential and obstacles for a new stage in the development of the EAEU have been identified. The accuracy of estimates of the 5-year integration dynamics affects the effectiveness of decisions on further integration. A complete, reliable, qualitative statistical assessment of the economic condition of the Union is a necessary basis for the successful dynamics of the Union at a new stage

Armenia Within the Eurasian Economic Union

DOI: 10.33917/es-7.165.2019.74-77

The Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), signed on May 29, 2014, entered into force on January 1, 2015. The purpose of the Union is to provide conditions for the stable economic development of member states by improving the living standards of the population, comprehensive modernization, cooperation and increasing the competitiveness of national economies. Armenia became part of the EAEU 2015 on January 2. At the same time, the most important problems for all countries remain: the problem of diversification of national industry; low competitiveness of the products of most manufacturers, a low share of high-tech products in exports, virtually no trade and investment cooperation between individual pairs of countries, the degree of public confidence in the integration group. The article discusses issues related to the economic development of Armenia within the EAEU, mutual trade with the EAEU member countries, the attitude of the population to the EAEU; the positive and negative aspects of Armenia’s participation in the EAEU, as well as possible ways to strengthen integration within the EAEU are revealed

Cryptocurrency Management Model for Forming the EAEU Unified Electronic Currency

#6. For the High Norm
Cryptocurrency Management Model for Forming the EAEU Unified Electronic Currency

The article discusses the possibility of forming (based on cryptocurrency principles) a single electronic currency of the EAEU. On the basis of a cryptocurrency approach — e-currency emission — it becomes possible to solve the problems of increasing investments, including to overcome the limited capabilities of national financial institutions in their competition with financial and banking groups — non-residents of the EAEU member states. A cryptocurrency management model allows to solve the problem of rearranging volumes, structure and conditions of emission and turnover of digital financial assets within the EAEU as a kind of bundled package of various types of investment resources based on an integrated cryptocurrency control, mining and ICO (Initial Coin Offering) in conjunction with economic activity and exchange rates of the EAEU Member States. The unified financial system of the EAEU in terms of financial resources amount will be able to withstand the risks of currency and financial collapses due to manipulative games and currency attacks by international speculative groups.

“Soft Power” of Science and Education in Developing Eurasian Economic Integration

#2. Sisyphean Task
“Soft Power” of Science and Education in Developing Eurasian Economic Integration

Russia’s chairmanship in the Eurasian Economic Union in 2018 allows us to formulate and bring to a wide discussion a set of initiatives aimed at strengthening the integration association and completing the lost links of the integration agenda. As the practice of EAEU functioning in conditions of external constraints and the lack of clearly articulated joint development priorities has shown, the Union needs to specify the goals and to reinforce pragmatic aspirations of the member states with serious research and practical work to update the joint cultural, historical and spiritual heritage of the peoples of Eurasia. In other words, it is necessary to give a new impetus to the Eurasian Union, which should become a competitive economic union of states that have a common picture of the world, a single system of conceptions and values. The network of scientific and educational institutions of the EAEU member states has become one of these bases cementing the common economic whole, which, if properly organized, can turn into a self-sufficient profitable industry, whose product (modern knowledge) can be successfully exported to third countries, increasing the prestige and capitalization of the union, as well as strengthening Russia’s foreign policy positions. To this end, it is necessary right now to take active steps towards growing clusters of science and education on the basis of exchanging best experience and practices between the profile institutions of the Union’s countries, to raise the bar of qualification requirements for all participants in the Eurasian scientific and educational exchange. The article proposes the approach outlines for the all-round stimulation of cooperation in this sphere with the aim of both self-sufficient provision of integration processes with modern personnel and for the outside supply.

Forming the Russian Cluster of Transport-Transit and Fuel-Energy Corridors of Eurasia, Integrated with the Chinese Economic Belt of the Silk Road

#8. New Year’s Forces
Forming the Russian Cluster of Transport-Transit and Fuel-Energy Corridors of Eurasia, Integrated with the Chinese Economic Belt of the Silk Road

The article is dedicated to forming the Russian cluster of transport-transit and fuel-energy corridors of Eurasia as a Russian counterpart partner project integrated with the Chinese Economic belt of the Silk Road. The authors substantiate the necessity of creating the Eurasian distributed mega-hub, oriented to consolidated management for the use of the transport-transit and fuel-energy infrastructure of Russia and other states-participants of the EAEU, combined with a similar Chinese infrastructure. The technological base of such a project is the infrastructure for production and transportation of fuel, energy, raw materials, food and other resources and for provision of logistics and other services in the structure of infrastructure-transport directions (corridors) “China–Russia–Europe” and “Russia–China–Asia”. It is proposed to change Russia’s business positioning in cooperation with China for its integration as a key operator in the structure of providing transport and transit services and supplying fuel and energy resources in Europe and Asia. On this basis, it is possible to form mechanisms both for coordinating trade of products and resources, as well as agreeing in mutually beneficial interests between Russia and China on various technological, economic, information and other aspects that ensure synchronization of the processes of rendering transport and transit services and energy supply to consumers in different territorial zones of national economies of Europe and Asia.