DOI: 10.33917/es-8.174.2020.26-35

Society is historically associated with the state, which plays the role of an institution of power and government. The main task of the state is life support, survival, development of society and the sovereignty of the country. The main mechanism that the state uses to implement these functions is natural social networks. They permeate every cell of society, all elements of the country and its territory. However, they can have a control center, or act on the principle of self-organization (network centrism). The web is a universal natural technology with a category status in science. The work describes five basic factors of any social network, in particular the state, as well as what distinguishes the social network from other organizational models of society. Social networks of the state rely on communication, transport and other networks of the country, being a mechanism for the implementation of a single strategy and plan. However, the emergence of other strong network centers of competition for state power inevitably leads to problems — social conflicts and even catastrophes in society due to the destruction of existing social institutions. The paper identifies the main pitfalls using alternative social networks that destroy the foundations of the state and other social institutions, which leads to the loss of sovereignty, and even to the complete collapse of the country.

PEST can be regarded as a high-quality analog of a quantitative mathematical model used, for example, in the budgeting process. Calculations presume a variation of some variables within the model, including the expert one. Such variation is inevitable since any model only to some extent is similar to the simulated system and the “observer’s” expert position is important. At the entrance of the mathematical model there are figures defined with some accuracy, at the output there are also figures, expertly substantiated and simulated. PEST represents a “semantic model” containing basic “event trees”. At the entrance to this model there are events that “happened”. At the output — their development forecast, if “this” has happened, “this and that” will certainly happen and with some probability “or this, or that”. The forecast presumes the work of an expert who subjects the event to a modeling framework of PEST-analysis. With events development in reality it becomes possible to compare two semantic networks, one of which is referred to “forecasted”, and the other — to “happened” events structure. An expert, and in some simple cases even a computer program, can either attribute a happened event to one of the scenario branches existing in the forecast or to come out with a suggestion on the emergence of a new branch, or, finally, to conclude that the given event is an imitation, that is, has a “non-physical character”. The latter is very important, but needs verification by subsequent events. Thus, the proposed PEST-analysis in the context of “world — country — region” is some semantic “model”, forming “forecasted” semantic trees and networks, allowing to classify operational event-series (“extract meaning”) and to forecast their further development from the strategic perspective point of view. This method seems relevant from the perspective of realization (and automation) of the problem of continuous dynamic strategic management, which is extremely important while the world system is passing ugh the “bifurcation point”.