25.05.2010 Growing Surprises Alexander Ageev Editor's Column #6. Growing Surprises, 2010 Keywords: black swan, causal effect, devil-fish Paul Opening Remarks. permanent link >>> Продолжить чтение
25.05.2010 Processes Influencing the Medium-Term Dynamics of Political Instability in the USA (2010-2020) Petr Turchin Force Field #5. Gradation of the Inadmissible, 2010 Keywords: causal effect, forecasting, frame of society, USA Accurate prediction of the future is impossible for several reasons, such as the free will of a person and the problem of “self-fulfilling prophecy”. permanent link >>> Продолжить чтение