As a result of further theoretical development of approaches to modeling equilibrium exchange rates developed a generalized dynamic model based on the concepts of macroeconomic equilibrium and the balance of payments with regard to the mechanism of formation relative international competitive advantage. In the framework proposed by the author concept IFEER withdrawn the final formula of the equilibrium exchange rates depending on the fundamental macroeconomic indicators.
At the theoretical-methodological level the article investigates the system interrelation of available tools and the complex of targeted parameters while carrying out the currency and monetary policy. From formal positions of economic-mathematical modeling it is shown that volatility of streams of the capital and volatility of the export prices, first of all prices of oil and oil products, directly define volatility of an exchange rate of ruble. It is shown that real transition to targeting of inflation in modern conditions of strategic pressure upon our country from the USA and the EU is represented premature, including in the context of national security of Russia.
The practice of manipulating the exchange rate to achieve the “unfair” competitive advantage in international trade has repeatedly led to waves (more properly to be termed wars) of devaluations in response
The reason for stable continuous movements of the equilibrium real exchange rate can be differences in growth rates of technological changes in commercial and non-trade sectors of the economy.